Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #119
35%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #109
65%
Expected Total Games: 40.2
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

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Ranking Trends

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #119 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #99 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #158 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #146 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #138 2025-05-26

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #109 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #83 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #88 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 39.5
ELO Rating: 1610.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.4
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 92.1

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 26.2
ELO Rating: 1521.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1456.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.8
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Stan Wawrinka
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) clay Geneva 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Raul Brancaccio (2-1) clay Geneva 128 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefano Travaglia (2-1) clay Rome 138 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) clay Barcelona 153 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min

Jesper de Jong
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) clay Rome 61 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-1) clay Rome 179 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) clay Rome 149 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stan Wawrinka
vs
0
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland‑Garros in Paris, opening‑round clay throws Stan Wawrinka against Jesper de Jong in the round of 128 of the 2026 Grand Slam. The model backs Jesper de Jong to prevail (64.61% to 35.39%) with an expected match length of about 40.2 games, suggesting straight sets or a tight three‑setter rather than an extended epic.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is intriguingly balanced. Wawrinka holds the higher Elo (1610.9 vs 1521.2) and a better form index (39.5 to 26.2), while de Jong sits one spot higher in the rankings (109 v 119) and boasts a noticeably stronger clay surface strength index (16.79 v 7.65). Fatigue is a major contrast: Wawrinka arrives with zero minutes logged in the event, while de Jong carries 348 minutes on court already, which can matter late in rallies on clay. Wawrinka’s mean return index (92.06) is meaningfully superior to de Jong’s (86.70), a difference that should translate into more break opportunities; serve ratings are nearly identical so neither player holds a clear edge on service power. Looking at recent form, Wawrinka has two wins in his last three clay outings but was beaten in his most recent match in Geneva. De Jong’s recent Roland‑Garros sequence is mixed: a hard‑fought win two matches ago but losses in his most recent Roland‑Garros and Rome appearances. Both players have shown the capacity to close matches on clay but neither has been dominant in the run‑up, leaving margins thin.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.2 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stan Wawrinka - Jesper de Jong) -1.3 Most likely spread: -2 (Jesper de Jong wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for this match sits lowish at a predicted aces total of 14.84, consistent with clay’s slower, high‑bounce characteristics. The expected double faults tally is 7.61; that expected double faults figure reflects clay’s longer points and the potential for fatigue to creep in — especially given de Jong’s heavy minutes. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating to push aces much higher, so the predicted aces remain modest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.6 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stan Wawrinka's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Jong’s edge comes from his slightly better clay profile and the model’s overall matchup evaluation, despite carrying court fatigue and a lower Elo. The key factor to watch will be Wawrinka’s return efficiency against de Jong’s serve under fatigue — breaks of serve will likely decide this one.

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