Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #90
39%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #80
61%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Ranking Trends

Patrick Kypson

  • Current #90 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #116 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #166 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #214 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #452 2025-04-21

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #80 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 37.6
ELO Rating: 1484.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1468.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 221.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.3
Clay: 38.5
Grass: 40.2
Serve Rating: 87.8
Return Rating: 65.1

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 43.2
ELO Rating: 1636.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1650.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 41.4
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Patrick Kypson
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) clay Munich 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 105 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-1) hard Miami 55 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Miami 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fery (2-0) hard Miami 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Patrick Kypson
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets up Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. The model favors Tsitsipas (61.49%) over Kypson (38.51%), with a projected match length of about 24.08 games — a straight-sets or tight two-set win is the likeliest outcome given that total.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas arrives as the higher-rated player on paper: world rank 80 and an Elo of 1635.96, versus Kypson at rank 90 and Elo 1484.82. Form indices show Tsitsipas slightly ahead (43.17 to 37.59). Kypson carries significant tournament fatigue (221 minutes on court) while Tsitsipas is fresh (0 minutes), a factor that can matter over long clay rallies. Their surface strength indices are comparable (Kypson 38.49, Tsitsipas 41.39), so neither has a stark clay-court edge in the numbers. Serve and return split is notable. Tsitsipas posts a higher mean serve index (97.77) against Kypson’s 87.75 — a gap above 5 points that suggests a serve edge for Stefanos. The mean return index difference is even larger (Tsitsipas 87.79 vs Kypson 65.11), implying Tsitsipas is likelier to break or capitalize on weaker second serves. Recent form: Kypson is 1-2 in his last three (a long 152-minute match to get through qualifying and a solid straight-sets win two matches ago), while Tsitsipas has struggled in recent results reflected by three losses in the listed matches, though those encounters were at different stages and surfaces.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Patrick Kypson - Stefanos Tsitsipas) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction (total ~11.21) is moderate; clay tends to depress ace totals and the predicted aces reflect that. Predicted aces still favor the bigger server — Tsitsipas’ superior serve index should produce a disproportionate share of those aces even on slow courts. The double faults prediction (expected double faults ~4.83) is modest but notable: Kypson’s accumulated minutes raise the risk of late-match errors. In short, the aces prediction and double faults prediction point to a match where big serve moments matter, but fatigue and long rallies will pressure consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’ higher Elo, stronger serve and return indices, and fresher legs give him the edge on clay despite neither player having a dominant surface profile. Watch Kypson’s serve hold under pressure and Tsitsipas’ return aggression — those will decide whether this meets the projected total games.

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