Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #25
36%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current Rank: #25 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #30 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #47 (2025-02-24)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #24 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #62 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #51 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 50.3
ELO Rating: 1321.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 11.5
Grass: 13.3
Serve Rating: 90.3
Return Rating: 44.1

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 2972.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 65.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 23.7
Grass: 24.8
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Otto Virtanen (2-0) hard Dubai 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Rotterdam 121 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Rotterdam 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) hard Montpellier 106 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) hard Dubai 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 54 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Rotterdam 162 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Rotterdam 125 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Dubai, U.A.E., is on outdoor hard courts at a 500-level event. Alexander Bublik is the modeled favorite with a 63.84% chance to win, while Tallon Griekspoor sits at 36.16%. The model expects a relatively short match: about 25.06 total games.

Match Analysis

Griekspoor arrives ranked 25 with an Elo of 1321.76 and a form index of 50.32. His cumulative fatigue in the event is 74 minutes and his surface strength index on hard courts is 7.63. He posts a strong mean serve index of 90.32 but a lower mean return index of 44.10. Bublik is the higher-ranked player at 10 with a much higher Elo of 2972.45 and a form index of 71.24. His fatigue is slightly lower at 65 minutes, surface strength index 19.86, and he shows an elite mean serve index of 98.09 — noticeably better than Griekspoor’s. Bublik also has a much stronger mean return index (87.63) compared with Griekspoor, a difference that is material. Over the last three matches, Griekspoor has two wins (Quentin Halys, Otto Virtanen) and a straight-sets loss to Félix Auger-Aliassime; his recent wins at Rotterdam and Dubai were competitive with match times up to 121 minutes. Bublik’s recent form shows two wins (Jaume Munar, Jan-Lennard Struff) and a loss to Auger-Aliassime; his matches include a long 162-minute contest and a quick 65-minute win in Dubai. The combination of Bublik’s higher form index and superior serve/return numbers underpins the prediction.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 15.35 total aces and the predicted double faults are 3.91 total. On medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces reflect a balance between big-serving opportunity and consistent bounce. Given Bublik’s significantly higher serve index, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces; the expected double faults remain modest for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics, higher form and Elo, and slightly fresher legs. The key factor to watch is Bublik’s service impact — if he holds easily and converts free points, Griekspoor will struggle to generate enough return pressure.

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