Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #50
31%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #17
69%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.5 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +4.0 Brandon Nakashima
Recent form +3.5 Tallon Griekspoor
Overall record & opposition quality +2.7 Brandon Nakashima
Serve & return game +2.0 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #50 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #67 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #33 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #26 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-10-27

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #17 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #32 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #30 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 39.5
ELO Rating: 1679.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.3
Clay: 18.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 87.0

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 1805.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1834.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.5
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) hard Brussels 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Brussels 136 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Brussels 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Max Schoenhaus (2-1) hard Brussels 133 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pavel Kotov (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Nakashima is favored, with a 69% win probability against Griekspoor’s 31%, and 25.2 total games expected. The Round of 32 match in Vienna leans his way on hard-court fit and his stronger record at this level.

Match Analysis

Nakashima’s ranking, 17th to Griekspoor’s 50th, supports the case that he has been the more reliable performer against stronger opposition. The hard-court matchup also tilts his way, although their serve and return strengths are close. Griekspoor arrives on a three-match hard-court winning run in Brussels, including wins over Jiri Lehecka and Francisco Cerundolo. Nakashima had two wins and a loss in Marseille, so Griekspoor has the stronger recent form, even as Nakashima holds the broader edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tallon Griekspoor - Brandon Nakashima) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Brandon Nakashima wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Griekspoor is projected for 9.9 aces and 2.4 double faults, while Nakashima is projected for 11.1 aces and 1.6 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but Nakashima’s higher ace projection and lower expected fault count point to a cleaner serving day.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.9 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Tallon Griekspoor 9.9 + Brandon Nakashima 11.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tallon Griekspoor 2.4 + Brandon Nakashima 1.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 9.9 aces

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 11.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 2.4 double faults

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 1.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tallon Griekspoor's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s recent hard-court run is the clearest threat to the forecast. If he sustains that level against Nakashima, his current form could outweigh the gap in ranking and surface performance.

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