Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Francisco Cerundolo vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
63%
VS

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #60
37%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +4.1 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall strength +2.7 Francisco Cerundolo
Serve & return game +2.4 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent form +2.1 Francisco Cerundolo
Fatigue & recent workload +1.0 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #21 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #21 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-10-20

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #60 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #33 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #26 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 48.2
ELO Rating: 1822.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 171.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.0
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 91.9

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1648.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 377.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.3
Clay: 18.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Brussels 136 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Brussels 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Max Schoenhaus (2-1) hard Brussels 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Pavel Kotov (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) hard Beijing 156 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Tallon Griekspoor
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cerundolo is favoured at 63% to 37%, with 25.6 total games expected in a potentially close match. His stronger hard-court profile and return game give him the advantage over Griekspoor in the Brussels semifinals.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo is the stronger returner and has the better hard-court profile, two areas that help explain his edge. He is also ranked 21st, compared with Griekspoor at 60th, and has won his last two matches without dropping a set, beating Martin Damm and Clement Chidekh. Griekspoor brings a strong serve and a run of three wins in Brussels, so Cerundolo cannot rely on a straightforward match. But the Dutchman has spent 377 minutes on court this tournament, more than twice Cerundolo’s 171, and his latest win over Jiri Lehecka lasted 136 minutes. That workload could matter if the match becomes long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Tallon Griekspoor) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Griekspoor is projected to hit 10.2 aces, against 7.4 for Cerundolo. The expected double-fault counts are close, at 3.0 for Griekspoor and 2.7 for Cerundolo, while Griekspoor’s slightly stronger serve points to the higher ace total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 7.4 + Tallon Griekspoor 10.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 2.7 + Tallon Griekspoor 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 7.4 aces

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 10.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 2.7 double faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (42.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s serve is the specific threat to Cerundolo’s forecast. If he converts that serving advantage into enough free points to blunt Cerundolo’s stronger return, he can make the extra workload less costly.

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