Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #7
52%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current Rank: #7 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #6 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #4 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #4 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #4 (2025-02-10)

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #32 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #33 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #31 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #29 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 3807.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2031.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 146.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 27.8
Grass: 32.0
Serve Rating: 82.6
Return Rating: 40.4

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 48.4
ELO Rating: 1355.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 68.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Dallas 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Brisbane 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 at the Dallas 500-level event in Texas is a hard-court showdown between No. 7 Taylor Fritz and No. 32 Brandon Nakashima. The model favors Taylor Fritz to advance, with a 52.25% win probability to Nakashima’s 47.75%, and the match is expected to produce about 24.22 games in total.

Match Analysis

Fritz arrives as the higher-ranked player (7) with a very strong Elo (3806.98) and a higher form index (65.74) than Nakashima (rank 32, Elo 1355.39, form 48.39). Fritz shows a solid mean serve index (82.65) and a more modest mean return index (40.39). Nakashima posts a markedly higher mean serve index (98.37) and substantially stronger mean return index (86.36); both differences exceed 5 points and are noteworthy for how the match may unfold. Fatigue also favors Nakashima (68 minutes on court this event) over Fritz (146 minutes), while Fritz has a higher surface strength index (22.76 vs 9.86) on hard courts. Across their last three matches, Fritz has two wins and one loss: a Dallas three-set victory over Marcos Giron (146 minutes), a straight-sets loss to Lorenzo Musetti at the Australian Open (174 minutes), and a prior win over Stan Wawrinka (174 minutes). Nakashima is 1-2 in his most recent trio: a straight-sets Dallas win over Mattia Bellucci (68 minutes), and defeats to Botic van de Zandschulp and Daniil Medvedev (long matches of 174 and 95 minutes respectively). These recent results reflect Fritz’s higher-level wins but greater court time in the event to date.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 14.6 total aces, and the expected double faults figure is 3.7. On a medium-paced hard court that balances serve potency and return ability, the predicted aces and predicted aces distribution lean toward Nakashima because of his considerably higher mean serve index. This double faults prediction is modest, reflecting both players’ generally disciplined serving profiles on hard surfaces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fritz’s edge comes from superior ranking, a much higher Elo and steadier recent form, despite carrying more match minutes in Dallas. Watch how Nakashima’s powerful serve and exceptional return index influence short points—those service dynamics will be the decisive factor.

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