Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Taylor Fritz vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #10
70%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #72
30%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +6.2 Taylor Fritz
Recent form +5.2 Taylor Fritz
Serve & return game +2.4 Taylor Fritz
Recent record by level +1.8 Taylor Fritz
Age +1.5 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #10 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #9 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #4 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #4 2025-07-28

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #72 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #59 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #70 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-07-28

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 58.9
ELO Rating: 1895.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1908.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.4
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 88.3

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 44.4
ELO Rating: 1699.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 120.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.4
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Kamil Majchrzak
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) hard Washington 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) grass London 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex De Minaur (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 145 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Washington 500 event in DC, the round-of-16 clash on hard court pits world No. 10 Taylor Fritz against No. 72 Kamil Majchrzak. The model favors Fritz (69.58%) over Majchrzak (30.42%), with a predicted match length of about 25.05 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Fritz comes mainly from overall strength and recent form. Fritz sits 10th in the rankings with an Elo of 1895.69 and a form index of 58.9, versus Majchrzak’s rank of 72, Elo 1699.26 and form index 44.35. Those differences feed the +6.2 and +5.2 percentage-point lifts toward Fritz. Surface numbers show Fritz with a higher hard-court surface strength index (37.35 vs 29.44), and his mean serve index (98.43) is very slightly above Majchrzak’s (96.25) — not a large gap but supportive of Fritz’s serving profile. Both players have near-identical mean return indexes (both ~88.25), so returns are expected to be evenly matched. Fatigue and recent results also matter: Fritz has 79 minutes on court in this event compared with Majchrzak’s 120 minutes, giving Fritz a freshness advantage. Over their last three matches, Fritz arrived in DC after a straight-sets win here and mixed results at Wimbledon (a big win over Bublik, a loss to Zverev), while Majchrzak beat Tommy Paul in Washington after longer matches at Wimbledon with one deep five-setter. The model also credits Fritz for stronger recent results at this level (+1.8) and age (+1.5), reinforcing the forecast.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Taylor Fritz - Kamil Majchrzak) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Taylor Fritz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a predicted aces total of about 20.6 for the match, with an expected double faults total near 3.52. On a medium-paced hard court, that level of aces is consistent with two strong servers trading free points; clay would suppress aces, grass would typically boost them. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the expected ace count reflects two capable servers rather than a single dominant big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.6 Most likely: 20 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.5 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Taylor Fritz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (46.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fritz’s edge is primarily driven by his overall strength metric and superior recent form. Watch Fritz’s serve consistency and Majchrzak’s court endurance—fatigue and a few key service games could determine whether the match stays tight or swings decisively.

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