Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

Taylor Fritz vs Patrick Kypson: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #8
74%
VS

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #113
26%
Expected Total Games: 41.2
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +12.1 Taylor Fritz
Recent record by level +9.3 Taylor Fritz
Serve & return game +6.8 Taylor Fritz
Surface fit +2.9 Patrick Kypson
Recent form +2.2 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #8 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #4 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-06-30

Patrick Kypson

  • Current #113 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #118 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #184 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #240 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 49.6
ELO Rating: 1832.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1890.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.6
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 48.1
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 92.7

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 55.3
ELO Rating: 1564.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.8
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Patrick Kypson
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Patrick Kypson
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This first-round meeting at Wimbledon (Round of 64, grass) pits No. 8 Taylor Fritz against No. 113 Patrick Kypson. The model favors Fritz, projecting a 73.59% chance of victory to Kypson’s 26.41%, with an expected total of about 41.17 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Fritz comes mainly from overall strength and recent results at similar levels: those two factors account for the largest shifts toward him. Fritz’s ranking (8) and higher Elo (1832) underline that gap versus Kypson (rank 113, Elo 1564). Recent-record-by-level and recent-form nudges also favor Fritz, reflecting wins over top opponents and deeper runs at big events. Stat lines reinforce that picture. Fritz posts a strong form index of 49.6, high surface strength (48.1) for grass, and very robust return numbers (mean return index 92.7). Kypson shows a higher raw form index (55.3) but a weak grass profile (surface strength 13.2). Both players show identical cumulative fatigue (174 minutes) from the tournament so neither has an obvious freshness edge. The mean serve indices are similar (Fritz 98.65, Kypson 96.53), so there isn’t a large serving-power gap, but Fritz’s return advantage (about 7.7 points higher) is meaningful on serve-dominated grass. Over their last three matches Fritz has beaten Zverev and Lajovic (and lost to Tiafoe), while Kypson arrives off a solid Wimbledon win over Mackenzie McDonald but has mixed results on clay prior.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.2 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Taylor Fritz - Patrick Kypson) +3.1 Most likely spread: +3 (Taylor Fritz wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is high: the model’s predicted aces for the match sit at 28.52, which fits grass being the fastest surface and favoring big servers. The double faults prediction is modest — expected double faults are about 6.67 for the match. Because both players carry very strong serve indices, the predicted aces remain elevated; Fritz’s slightly better return game may suppress Kypson’s service hold chances even if Kypson also serves big.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 28.5 Most likely: 28 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

60.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Taylor Fritz's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (43.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fritz’s edge is driven above all by overall strength (the top model factor) and a superior return profile that matters on grass despite both players serving well. Key factor to watch: Fritz’s return efficiency — if he breaks early it should consign Kypson to chasing the match.

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