Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Taylor Fritz vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #13
76%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #85
24%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.6 Taylor Fritz
Overall strength +5.6 Taylor Fritz
Recent record by level +5.4 Taylor Fritz
Recent form +4.2 Taylor Fritz
Surface fit +2.2 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #13 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #9 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #4 2025-10-27

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #85 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #101 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #114 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #119 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 1834.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1893.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.1
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 27.4
ELO Rating: 1596.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 208.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.4
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Rinky Hijikata
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Taylor Fritz is favored in the Round of 32 in Basel, at 76% to Rinky Hijikata’s 24%. The projection is for 25.3 total games, leaving room for a competitive match.

Match Analysis

Fritz has the stronger serve-and-return profile, with the larger advantage on serve and a smaller one on return. That can help him protect his service games and put pressure on Hijikata to win points against the serve. The ranking gap, 13th to 85th, also reflects a substantial difference in established level. Fritz won two of his last three matches, including straight-set wins over Tommy Paul and Daniel Altmaier, before losing to Lorenzo Musetti. Hijikata has one win in his last three, and has already spent 208 minutes on court in Basel. Fritz has yet to play at this tournament, giving Hijikata the more demanding workload coming into this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Taylor Fritz - Rinky Hijikata) +3.1 Most likely spread: +3 (Taylor Fritz wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fritz is projected for 12.3 aces and 2.2 double faults, while Hijikata is projected for 6.3 aces and 2.5 double faults. Fritz’s stronger serve accounts for the clear gap in expected aces, while the double-fault estimates are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.2 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Taylor Fritz 12.3 + Rinky Hijikata 6.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Taylor Fritz 2.2 + Rinky Hijikata 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Taylor Fritz

Expected 12.3 aces

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 6.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Taylor Fritz

Expected 2.2 double faults

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.4% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Taylor Fritz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (51.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hijikata’s serve is close enough to Fritz’s to make a run of holds plausible. If he can turn that into tiebreak pressure, he could blunt Fritz’s smaller advantage on return.

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