Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tabilo comes mainly from his recent record by level (+3.1 percentage points) and overall record & opposition quality (+2.4 pp), with a smaller boost from overall strength (+1.3 pp). Those drivers are reflected in Tabilo’s higher ranking (No. 30 vs No. 56) and a marginally higher Elo (1614.29 vs 1610.56). Tabilo’s form index is also slightly up (30.37 vs 27.71) and his surface strength index is a touch better on hard (27.03 vs 25.36), which supports the model leaning his way. Atmane picks up modest advantages that temper the gap: age contributes in his favor (+1.9 pp) and his serve & return profile nudges the balance slightly (+0.8 pp). Their mean serve and return indices are essentially level (serve: 96.57 vs 96.34; return: 86.93 vs 86.55), so expect a match where baseline serving performance is comparable. Fatigue is a factor — Atmane has logged 124 minutes on court so far in the tournament, Tabilo 142 — giving Atmane a small freshness edge. Recent form paints a clear picture: Atmane’s last result in Washington was a hard-fought 2-1 win over Frances Tiafoe, bookended by two losses on grass (Wimbledon and Eastbourne). Tabilo arrives off a 2-1 win over Tallon Griekspoor in Washington but had earlier losses on clay in Estoril and Bastad. Both players show inconsistency, but Tabilo’s wins at higher levels are what the model rewards.