Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #44
46%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #56
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Ethan Quinn

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 1614.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.9
Clay: 38.3
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 83.9
Return Rating: 75.5

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 1598.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 206.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.0
Clay: 42.5
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane

  • Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Miami 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-1) hard Miami 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Miami 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (1-2) hard Indian Wells 145 min

Ethan Quinn

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Otto Virtanen (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 105 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Miami 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Miami 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) hard Miami 66 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Monaco — Round of 64 on clay at a Masters 1000 event pits Terence Atmane against Ethan Quinn. The model projects Ethan Quinn to edge this one, with a 53.58% probability of victory to Atmane’s 46.42%, and an expected total of about 23.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Atmane arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 44) with a slightly superior Elo (1614.8) and a stronger recent form index (48.46) than Quinn (rank 56, Elo 1598.8, form 40.52). Atmane shows a high mean serve index (83.88) and solid return numbers (75.51), while Quinn posts markedly higher figures in both serve (96.69) and return (88.34) — both differences exceed 5 points and are likely to shape key moments. Fatigue is another clear split: Atmane reports 0 minutes on court in this tournament, while Quinn carries 206 minutes of match play, which can matter on demanding clay. Recent match patterns reinforce these metrics. Atmane’s last three matches (all on hard courts in Miami) produced two wins and a competitive three-set loss to Frances Tiafoe, showing resilience in extended play. Quinn’s recent slate includes two clay matches in Monte Carlo — a win over Otto Virtanen and a loss to Francisco Comesana — plus a hard-court loss to Jiri Lehecka; overall 1–2 in the most recent three, with the cumulative minutes indicating more time spent on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Ethan Quinn) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. Positive values indicate Terence Atmane winning more games, negative values indicate Ethan Quinn winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at 15.64 total predicted aces, while the expected double faults total is 4.73. On slow, high-bouncing clay, predicted aces tend to be lower than on faster surfaces and expected double faults can creep up as rallies lengthen. Quinn’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will drive much of the predicted ace count, but the surface and match length temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.6 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Terence Atmane versus Ethan Quinn. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Quinn’s edge in serve and return indices gives him a narrow statistical advantage despite Atmane’s higher rank and fresher legs. The key factor to watch will be how Quinn’s heavy serving translates on clay and whether fatigue alters his serve consistency in crucial games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel