Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
69%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #53
31%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 54.2
ELO Rating: 3700.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 30.7
Grass: 31.6
Serve Rating: 84.9
Return Rating: 32.6

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 51.5
ELO Rating: 872.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 158.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Miami 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Indian Wells 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Indian Wells 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Indian Wells 136 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Dubai 83 min

Terence Atmane

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Miami 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (1-2) hard Indian Wells 145 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Acapulco 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (2-1) hard Acapulco 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, FL — round of 32 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event sets up Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmane. The model favors Auger-Aliassime (68.89%) over Atmane (31.11%), with a projected total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a strong Elo (3700.6) and a form index of 54.2; he has logged 130 minutes on court in the tournament so far and carries a surface strength index of 24.8 on hard. Terence, ranked 53, posts a similar form index (51.5) but a much lower Elo (872.9) and slightly heavier fatigue (158 minutes); his surface strength is modest at 7.6. There is a notable difference in serving and returning profiles: Atmane’s mean serve index (98.45) is substantially higher than Felix’s (84.93), and Atmane’s mean return index (92.01) far exceeds Felix’s (32.55), both gaps well over 5 points and likely to shape rallies and hold percentages. Recent results underline contrasting paths. Auger-Aliassime beat Marton Fucsovics in Miami (2–0) after splitting wins and a loss at Indian Wells (win over Diallo, loss to Fils), with matches ranging 111–147 minutes. Atmane has momentum here with two straight wins in Miami (over Rinderknech and Altmaier) after an earlier Indian Wells loss to Grigor Dimitrov; his wins were relatively quick (67 and 91 minutes), suggesting effective, efficient play this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Terence Atmane) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Terence Atmane wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. Positive values indicate Felix Auger-Aliassime winning more games, negative values indicate Terence Atmane winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 10.06 for the match and the expected double faults at 5.63. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate; given Atmane’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces. For the double faults prediction, a moderate total is anticipated as both players balance aggressive serving with some margin for error.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s higher ranking, dominant Elo and slightly better surface comfort give him the edge despite Atmane’s eye-catching serve and return metrics. The key factor to watch will be whether Atmane’s heavy serve and excellent return translate into short service games and pressure on Felix’s service games.

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