Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #39
41%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #51
59%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

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Ranking Trends

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #39 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #40 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #54 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-05-05

Terence Atmane

  • Current #51 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #136 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #119 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 35.4
ELO Rating: 1602.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 94.3

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 1668.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.2
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Zizou Bergs
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marko Topo (2-0) clay Munich 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 77 min

Terence Atmane
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zizou Bergs
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 128 on clay in Italy, Terence Atmane is narrowly favoured to progress against Zizou Bergs. The model gives Atmane a 58.99% chance to win versus 41.01% for Bergs, with a predicted total of about 26.9 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets result is the likeliest outcome.

Match Analysis

Bergs arrives ranked 39 with a form index of 35.36 and an Elo of 1602.6; he shows no accumulated fatigue and posts a surface strength index of 12.37. Atmane is ranked 51 but carries a higher form index (47.00) and a superior Elo (1668.5), with a slightly stronger surface strength of 15.40 and also no tournament fatigue. Their mean serve indices are nearly identical (Bergs 96.39, Atmane 96.06), so neither has a clear serving edge on paper. However, Bergs holds a noticeably better mean return index (94.30 vs 88.31), a gap greater than five points that could translate into more break opportunities on clay. Recent results underline the contrast in momentum. Bergs has one win (Munich over Marko Topo) and back-to-back losses in Munich and Madrid, including a competitive three-seter vs Marin Cilic. Atmane comes into Rome off two wins in Madrid (over Kecmanovic and Humbert) before falling to Alexander Zverev; his recent match lengths include a taxing 136-minute win, indicating match toughness on clay. Those wins and a higher Elo help explain the model’s edge for Atmane despite Bergs’ superior return numbers.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zizou Bergs - Terence Atmane) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Terence Atmane wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 11.7 for the match, while the predicted double faults are 5.62. On slow, high-bounce clay, expected aces tend to be suppressed and predicted aces here reflect that; clay’s longer rallies also make the expected double faults figure realistic as fatigue grows. With nearly identical serve indices, neither player should inflate the ace count substantially, so the aces prediction leans on volume rather than one dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.7 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zizou Bergs's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane’s higher Elo and stronger recent form give him the projected edge, while Bergs’ superior return ability is the clearest threat and the key factor to watch — if Bergs converts return chances early, he can swing the tight projected scoreline.

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