Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #92
40%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #71
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

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Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 56.3
ELO Rating: 778.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 186.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.8
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 61.8
Return Rating: 43.2

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 59.5
ELO Rating: 764.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 204.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 99.0
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Alejandro Tabilo

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
0
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Rio (clay) at an ATP 500-level event pits Thiago Agustin Tirante against Alejandro Tabilo. The model favors Tabilo to advance with a 60.23% probability over Tirante’s 39.77%, and the match is projected to contain about 23.33 total games.

Match Analysis

Tirante (rank 92) arrives with a form index of 56.30 and an Elo of 778.70. His surface strength index on clay is modest at 4.91, and his cumulative tournament court time is 186 minutes, indicating moderate fatigue. By contrast, Tabilo (rank 71) posts a slightly higher form index (59.50) but a lower Elo (764.30); his clay surface strength is 7.57 while his fatigue reads 204 minutes. The serving metrics show a clear gap: Tabilo’s mean serve index (98.96) towers over Tirante’s 61.78 — a difference well above 5 points. Return-wise Tabilo also holds an advantage (89.31 vs 43.20), another gap exceeding 5 points; both serve and return disparities favor Tabilo. Recent results underline these numbers. Tirante has won his two Rio matches in straight sets (against Garin and Cerundolo) after a longer hard-court loss at the Australian Open; his wins there were efficient, with match times of 113 and 73 minutes. Tabilo has also progressed through Rio, with wins over Passaro (a longer 141-minute three-setter) and Nava (63 minutes), and a prior loss to Etcheverry in Buenos Aires. Both players show match toughness on clay, but Tabilo’s higher serve/return indices suggest greater all-court control in baseline exchanges and service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Alejandro Tabilo) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. Positive values indicate Thiago Agustin Tirante winning more games, negative values indicate Alejandro Tabilo winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is relatively low for the surface: predicted aces total 15.91. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing nature typically reduces ace frequency, and that aligns with this aces prediction. Expected double faults are 5.94 for the match; the slower surface and accumulated fatigue can increase miscues, supporting this expected double faults figure. Given Tabilo’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a large share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Alejandro Tabilo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s stronger serve and return profiles provide the edge in this clay quarterfinal, reflected in the 60.23% projected chance to win. The key factor to watch will be how Tirante handles Tabilo’s serve pressure and whether Tabilo can convert free points early in service games to keep rallies shorter.

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