Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Ben Shelton vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
75%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #83
25%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-03-31

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #83 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #106 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #97 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #111 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 1909.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1931.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 113.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.2
Clay: 46.2
Grass: 49.5
Serve Rating: 82.5
Return Rating: 63.4

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 64.9
ELO Rating: 1619.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.3
Clay: 39.1
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) clay Houston 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Miami 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Indian Wells 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Dallas 111 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) clay Houston 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (1-0) clay Houston 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) hard Miami 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Miami 204 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Landaluce (1-2) hard Miami 153 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Houston, Texas, on the slow clay courts of this 250-level event pit American Ben Shelton against Argentina’s Thiago Agustin Tirante. The model favors Ben Shelton to win (75.41% vs 24.59%) with a predicted total of about 24.15 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets outcome with relatively few service breaks overall.

Match Analysis

Shelton arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 9) with a markedly superior Elo (1909.70) and a solid form index (55.44). He carries 113 minutes of court time in Houston so far and posts a strong mean serve index (82.55) and a competent return index (63.40); his surface strength on clay is moderate (46.20). Tirante, ranked 83 with an Elo of 1619.41, actually shows a higher recent form index (64.93) but heavier cumulative minutes in Houston (138), which could be a factor late in rallies. His surface strength index is lower (39.11). The contrast in stroke profiles is notable: Tirante has a substantially higher mean serve index (97.13) than Shelton (difference > 5), and his mean return index (89.76) also exceeds Shelton’s by a large margin. Those disparities signal that Tirante can generate free points and return aggressively, but his lower ranking and Elo imply Shelton’s overall match-up experience and consistency should prevail. Recent results underline this: Shelton has one win here and two earlier hard-court defeats, while Tirante has won two straight in Houston (including a quick last-match victory) after a hard-court loss in Miami.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Thiago Agustin Tirante) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Ben Shelton wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.79 total for the match, while the predicted double faults total is 5.75. On clay, expected aces are generally suppressed because the surface slows the ball and increases bounce, yet Tirante’s much higher serve index could lift the predicted aces toward the total. Given the cumulative minutes both players have logged, the expected double faults figure may reflect rising fatigue as rallies lengthen.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.8 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton’s higher rank and Elo, coupled with steadier tournament minutes, give him the edge despite Tirante’s standout serve and return metrics. Watch how Tirante’s serve dominance and Shelton’s ability to neutralize it in extended rallies decide the key momentum swings.

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