Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Mensik comes mainly from his recent record by level, his better surface fit, and marginally stronger overall measures. Mensik sits at world rank 16 versus Tirante at 50. Their Elo ratings are close, 1839.1 for Mensik and 1826.9 for Tirante, but Mensik’s surface strength index is higher at 40.31 compared with Tirante’s 32.83. That surface advantage accounts for part of the prediction swing toward Mensik by 4.1 percentage points. The recent record by level was the single largest driver, contributing 8.8 percentage points toward Mensik in the model. Tirante brings a higher form index at 73.76 against Mensik’s 62.62, which is reflected in the model allocating 2.4 percentage points to Tirante for recent form. Fatigue is a notable contrast. Tirante has logged 476 minutes at the event so far, while Mensik has logged 263 minutes, a gap that favors Mensik going into this match. Both players have similar serve profiles with mean serve indexes of 96.84 for Tirante and 96.24 for Mensik, so serve power alone is not a differentiator. Over their last three matches, Tirante has won three straight in Cincinnati, including two long encounters. Mensik has two wins in Cincinnati and a loss in Toronto three matches ago, showing sturdier recent match efficiency but less cumulative time on court.