Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tirante enters this match as the higher-ranked and higher-rated player on form and Elo: world No. 58 with a form index of 75.46 and an Elo of 1790.66. He also posts stronger surface and return metrics for clay—surface strength 29.38 and a mean return index of 91.02—while carrying 348 minutes of court time in the event so far. Carreño Busta is ranked 90 with a form index of 69.83 and an Elo of 1691.28; his surface strength index is lower at 19.70, and he matches Tirante’s tournament fatigue at 348 minutes. Neither player shows a greater-than-5-point gap on mean serve index (Tirante 95.55, Carreño Busta 94.64), so serving power is balanced on paper. Over the last three matches Tirante has been consistent at Roland Garros, posting wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Llamas Ruiz (both victories at the event) after a straight-sets loss in Geneva to Arthur Rinderknech. Carreño Busta has also found traction in Paris with wins over Thanasi Kokkinakis and Jiří Lehečka, bookended by a loss in Rome to Alejandro Tabilo. Both players have comparable recent workloads at the clay majors, with Tirante’s higher return index and slightly better form and Elo nudging his numbers upward despite Carreño Busta’s experience in deeper draws.