Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #75
26%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #18
74%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #75 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #103 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #130 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #134 2025-04-21

Tommy Paul

  • Current #18 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 72.4
ELO Rating: 1649.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 77.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.5
Clay: 40.1
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 70.8
Return Rating: 64.9

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 57.0
ELO Rating: 1878.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1904.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.7
Clay: 49.1
Grass: 42.8
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid Masters 1000, Round of 64 on clay in Spain sets up a contrast in styles as Thiago Agustin Tirante faces Tommy Paul. The model favors Tommy Paul to win (73.52% vs Tirante 26.48%) with a predicted total of about 23.56 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rank and form diverge: Paul sits at No. 18 with an Elo of 1878.23, while Tirante is No. 75 with an Elo of 1649.67. Tirante enters with a higher recent form index (72.37) than Paul (56.99), but fatigue is a factor — Tirante has 77 minutes on court already in this event versus Paul’s 0. Surface strength favors Paul modestly (49.14 vs 40.11), reflecting a slight edge on clay. The mean serve index gap is substantial (Paul 96.57 vs Tirante 70.78), and the mean return gap is also large (Paul 89.71 vs Tirante 64.91), both differences exceeding 5 points and tilting expectations toward Paul on both service and return phases. Looking at recent matches, Tirante is 2-1 in his last three: a straight-sets win over Roberto Bautista Agut in Madrid (77 minutes) and a hard-fought victory over Ben Shelton in Houston (150 minutes), with a loss to Roman Burruchaga in between. Paul arrives with three straight wins in Houston, dispatching Burruchaga, Frances Tiafoe and Tomas Martin Etcheverry across matches of 160, 165 and 96 minutes respectively. Those results underline Paul’s consistency under pressure on clay this season.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Tommy Paul) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 13.59 total, with an expected double faults tally near 6.08. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce usually reduce ace totals and can increase the chance of late-match errors, so the predicted aces are tempered by surface conditions. Given Paul’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces skew toward him despite clay; the expected double faults figure accounts for the longer rallies and potential fatigue-driven errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.6 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s superior serve/return indices, higher Elo and fresher legs give him the clear edge in this matchup. Watch how Tirante handles Paul’s serve and whether he can extend rallies to exploit any clay-court passing opportunities — that will be the match’s decisive factor.

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