Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tomas Machac vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
62%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #94
38%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current Rank: #22 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #20 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #25 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #40 (2024-08-12)

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current Rank: #94 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #126 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #107 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #54 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-08-12)

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 35.8
ELO Rating: 1250.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 87.2

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 60.0
ELO Rating: 747.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1653.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 240.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (1-2) hard Toronto 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs August Holmgren (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) grass Halle 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) grass Halle 59 min

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jordan Thompson (2-0) hard Cincinnati 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mitchell Krueger (2-0) hard Cincinnati 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
1
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Tomas Machac and Adrian Mannarino in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 promises to be an intriguing encounter on hard courts. With Machac ranked 22 and holding a 62.40% probability of victory, while Mannarino stands at rank 94 with a 37.60% chance, the predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac enters this match with a solid form index of 35.77 and an Elo rating of 1250.51, showcasing his competitive edge against Mannarino, who has a form index of 60.01 and an Elo rating of 747.25. Notably, Machac's surface strength index of 14.82 reflects his capability on hard courts, compared to Mannarino's 7.53, indicating a significant advantage. The mean serve index also favors Machac at 96.82, surpassing Mannarino's 95.22 by a margin of over 5 points. However, their mean return indices are quite close, with Machac at 87.17 and Mannarino slightly higher at 87.48, suggesting a competitive aspect in their return games. In their recent performances, Machac has faced challenges, losing his last match against Reilly Opelka after a hard-fought battle, while he previously had a win against Damir Dzumhur. Conversely, Mannarino has shown resilience with three consecutive victories in Cincinnati, including a dominant performance against Jordan Thompson. This recent form could provide him with a psychological boost, yet his cumulative fatigue of 240 minutes may play a significant role in his stamina during the match.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac’s ranking, superior surface strength, and serve index provide him with a tangible edge over Adrian Mannarino. The key factor to watch will be Machac's ability to leverage his serving strength against Mannarino's fatigue, as this could greatly influence the match's outcome.