Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #47
44%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #35
56%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Player Metrics

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 1054.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1815.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 63.3
Return Rating: 48.3

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 60.3
ELO Rating: 1454.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.9
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 10.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Grigor Dimitrov

Tomas Machac

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Adelaide 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Adelaide 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Brisbane 144 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Grigor Dimitrov
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Grigor Dimitrov and Tomas Machac at the 2026 Australian Open's Round of 128 is set to be a compelling contest on hard courts. With Machac holding a slight advantage, he is predicted to win with a probability of 55.86%, while Dimitrov's chances sit at 44.14%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 39.37, indicating a potentially competitive battle.

Match Analysis

Grigor Dimitrov, currently ranked 47, has a form index of 55.06 and an Elo rating of 1054.14. His surface strength index is 8.03, indicating moderate proficiency on hard courts. Dimitrov's mean serve index of 63.26 is significantly lower than Machac's impressive 96.35, suggesting a notable advantage for Machac in terms of serve effectiveness. In contrast, Tomas Machac ranks 35 with a higher form index of 60.30 and an Elo rating of 1454.93, showcasing his strong recent performances. Machac's mean return index of 92.17 also surpasses Dimitrov's 48.27, further indicating his prowess in returning serves. Both players enter the match with no cumulative fatigue, which may play a critical role in their stamina throughout this encounter. In their recent performances, Dimitrov has had mixed results, with a recent loss to Raphael Collignon and a win against Pablo Carreno Busta. His form has fluctuated, reflecting challenges in maintaining consistency. Conversely, Machac has been on a winning streak in his last three matches at the Adelaide tournament, defeating players such as Tommy Paul and Jaume Munar, demonstrating his current form and confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Grigor Dimitrov - Tomas Machac) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Tomas Machac wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. Positive values indicate Grigor Dimitrov winning more games, negative values indicate Tomas Machac winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In terms of aces prediction, the match is expected to yield approximately 10.57 aces, aligning with the characteristics of hard courts that favor both strong servers and returners. The predicted double faults for the match stand at around 4.47, reflecting the competitive nature of the game. With Machac's superior serve index, he is likely to benefit from a higher ace count, while both players will aim to minimize their double faults to maintain pressure on their opponent.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Grigor Dimitrov versus Tomas Machac. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's edge in serving and returning capabilities, combined with his recent form, positions him as the predicted winner in this matchup against Grigor Dimitrov. A key factor to observe will be how well Dimitrov can handle Machac's aggressive return game, which could significantly impact the outcome.

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