Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #73
43%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #54
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 44.8
ELO Rating: 751.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 254.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 87.1
Return Rating: 44.5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 61.4
ELO Rating: 955.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 315.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Auckland 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Auckland 62 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Last Match: vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 217 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinal action in Buenos Aires (clay, ATP 250-level) pits Alejandro Tabilo against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The model favors Etcheverry (56.79%) over Tabilo (43.21%), with a predicted total of about 23.6 games in the match — suggesting a straight or short three-set encounter rather than a marathon.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives with the higher ranking (54 vs 73), stronger form index (61.35 vs 44.84) and a notably superior Elo rating (955.24 vs 751.14), all pointing to a consistent edge. He has accumulated more court time in this event (315 minutes vs 254), which raises fatigue concerns but also indicates longer, match-winning efforts; his surface strength index is marginally better (9.30 vs 6.27). Tabilo brings a very capable serve profile and lower cumulative time on court, which could help him stay sharp late in rallies. Serve/return profiles are materially different: Etcheverry’s mean serve index (97.84) is about 10.8 points higher than Tabilo’s (87.05), and his mean return index (90.42) eclipses Tabilo’s (44.46) by nearly 46 points — huge in return ability. These gaps suggest Etcheverry will be more aggressive on both second-ball pressure and breaking opportunities. Over the last three matches both players show similar recent form lines at this event: Tabilo won two clay matches here (against Fonseca and Díaz Acosta) after a longer loss on hard courts, while Etcheverry also has two wins in Buenos Aires (including a 217-minute battle) and a prior hard-court loss to Bublik.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.35 total with a double faults prediction around 3.91. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the surface slows ball speed and raises bounce, while expected double faults can climb with longer rallies and fatigue. Etcheverry’s significantly higher serve rating should elevate the predicted aces relative to Tabilo, but the clay backdrop will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s superior Elo, form and especially his return profile give him the edge, despite heavier minutes in the tournament. Watch return games and break-point conversion as the key factor — if Etcheverry converts early chances, he should control the match tempo.

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