Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jack Draper: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #30
43%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #25
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #30 2026-04-06
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #63 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #58 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-04-14

Jack Draper

  • Current #25 2026-04-06
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #9 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 63.0
ELO Rating: 1774.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1831.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.1
Clay: 44.5
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 70.5

Jack Draper

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 1798.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 66.0
Clay: 47.5
Grass: 45.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Houston 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (2-1) clay Houston 132 min

Jack Draper
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Barcelona’s clay-court round of 32 at the 500-level event, Tomas Martin Etcheverry meets Jack Draper in a matchup that pits clay-specialist comfort against raw power. The model favors Jack Draper to win (56.52%) over Etcheverry (43.48%), with a predicted total of about 23.2 games for the match.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives ranked 30 with a stronger recent form index (62.99) and an Elo of 1774.7. He shows good serve numbers for his profile (mean serve index 80.91) and a solid return index (70.48), and carries no tournament fatigue. His clay pedigree is reflected in three recent clay matches in Monte Carlo, where he beat Grigor Dimitrov and Terence Atmane before a competitive three-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz. Those matches suggest comfort in longer, grinding exchanges on clay. Draper, ranked 25, has a slightly higher Elo (1798.8) but a lower form index (45.96) coming into Barcelona, also with zero fatigue recorded. Surface strength indices are comparable (Etcheverry 44.49, Draper 47.46). The striking differences are Draper’s mean serve index (97.85) and mean return index (89.77), both substantially higher than Etcheverry’s—differences greater than five points—which gives Draper a clear weapons advantage. Recent results have been mixed on hard courts: a big win over Novak Djokovic followed by losses to Daniil Medvedev and Reilly Opelka, indicating high ceiling but some inconsistency.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Jack Draper) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Jack Draper wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: the model’s predicted aces total is 7.1, while expected double faults sit at 4.9. On slow clay, predicted aces tend to be lower due to reduced serve penetration and higher bounce; this surface context tempers big-serve numbers. That said, Draper’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will account for a large share of the predicted aces, while extended rallies on clay could bump up the expected double faults later in the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.1 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Draper’s superior serve and return indices give him the edge on paper despite Etcheverry’s stronger recent clay form. The key factor to watch will be Draper’s ability to translate his big-serve weapons into free points on a surface that normally favours longer exchanges.

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