Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Etcheverry comes mainly from fatigue and recent workload, supported by his fresher legs after far less time on court in this event. Etcheverry has accumulated 174 minutes in the tournament compared with Fearnley at 696 minutes. That gap drives the largest single factor in the prediction and matters on a physical baseline-heavy hard court late in a Grand Slam. Recent form and serve and return balance also nudge the forecast toward Etcheverry. While Fearnley posts a higher raw form index (52.41 versus Etcheverry 22.12) and a slightly higher Elo (1637.21 versus 1596.47), Etcheverry’s most recent match at the US Open was a straight-sets win. Fearnley has been through longer matches, including five-set and three-set affairs, which contributes to his heavier fatigue load. Surface strength indices are similar, 23.29 for Etcheverry and 21.66 for Fearnley, and mean serve and return indexes are close (serve 96.91 versus 94.22, return 88.37 versus 88.06). Recent form on match outcomes: Etcheverry is 1-2 across his last three with a straight-sets win here, while Fearnley is 2-1 at the Open with two wins and one loss in tight contests.