Stockholm Stockholm Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Max Dahlin Prediction

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
82%
VS

Max Dahlin

18%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Why the Model Favors Tomas Martin Etcheverry

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +14.2 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Recent record by level +13.1 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Serve & return game +7.0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Max Dahlin
Fatigue & recent workload +0.7 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 82% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #31 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #54 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-11-10

Max Dahlin

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 38.5
ELO Rating: 1649.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.2
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.2

Max Dahlin

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1485.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1398.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 82.0

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Max Dahlin
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) clay Bastad 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Max Dahlin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Etcheverry is a strong favourite, with the forecast giving him an 82% chance of winning against Dahlin’s 18%. The expected total is 24.2 games.

Match Analysis

The advantage begins with the gap in overall level: Etcheverry is ranked 31, while Dahlin is ranked 1000. Etcheverry also has the stronger serve-and-return profile, especially on return, which could make Dahlin work harder to hold serve. Etcheverry’s recent Paris run included wins over Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev before his loss to Rinky Hijikata. Dahlin’s most recent result was a loss to Sebastian Baez on clay, offering little evidence of his current hard-court form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Max Dahlin) +4.5 Most likely spread: +5 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Etcheverry is projected to hit 5.2 aces and 2.3 double faults, while Dahlin is projected for 5.5 aces and 3.4 double faults. Their similar serve profiles make the ace forecasts close on Stockholm’s medium-paced hard court, though Dahlin’s higher double-fault estimate points to more risk on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 5.2 + Max Dahlin 5.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.3 + Max Dahlin 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 5.2 aces

Max Dahlin

Expected 5.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 2.3 double faults

Max Dahlin

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Martin Etcheverry's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (46.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dahlin’s serve is his best chance to change the forecast. If he turns his slight projected ace advantage into reliable holds while limiting double faults, he can make Etcheverry’s stronger return count for less.

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