Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #14
52%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #22
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +2.9 Tommy Paul
Recent form +1.9 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +1.9 Andrey Rublev
Overall strength +0.5 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #14 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-10-27

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #22 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #15 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 48.7
ELO Rating: 1883.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1885.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 41.3
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 91.3

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1712.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1802.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.6
Clay: 37.2
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Andrey Rublev
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tommy Paul is a slight favourite, with the forecast at 52% to 48% over Andrey Rublev and 24.4 total games expected. In this Vienna Round of 32 match, the narrow gap points to a contest where a few key points could decide the outcome.

Match Analysis

Paul’s better hard-court fit and recent results give him the lean. He won two of his last three matches, beating Corentin Moutet and Benjamin Bonzi, though he most recently lost to Taylor Fritz. Rublev arrives after three straight defeats, including losses to Adrian Mannarino, Rei Sakamoto and Alex de Minaur. His serving offers a counterweight: the forecast gives him more aces, and that pressure could help him stay close even as Paul looks the steadier returner.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Andrey Rublev) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected to hit 6.8 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Rublev is projected for 8.5 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their serve ratings are close, but Rublev’s higher expected ace count gives his delivery the slight statistical advantage, with hard courts offering a consistent bounce for both servers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Tommy Paul 6.8 + Andrey Rublev 8.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tommy Paul 2.0 + Andrey Rublev 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 6.8 aces

Andrey Rublev

Expected 8.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.0 double faults

Andrey Rublev

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s ability to turn his serving advantage into free points is the specific threat to Paul’s forecast. If Paul can limit those easy holds and make Rublev play more points behind serve, his stronger recent form may prove decisive.

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