Tommy Paul vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Paul arrives at the semifinal as world No. 21 with a strong form index (80.66) and an Elo of 1851.6. His tournament workload is lighter than Tiafoe’s (240 vs. 315 minutes), and his surface strength index on clay (48.66) is marginally better than Tiafoe’s (44.67), suggesting Paul is slightly more comfortable on the slow surface. Tiafoe sits at No. 18 with a higher form index (84.91) and an Elo essentially level with Paul’s (1849.5), but the heavier minutes on court this week could be a factor late in rallies. Serve and return numbers offer a clear split: Tiafoe’s mean serve index (97.24) is substantially higher than Paul’s (61.56), and her mean return index (89.99) also outstrips Paul’s (66.28) — both differences exceed 5 points and are notable. Paul’s game is built around steady returning and movement; his recent clay wins (including a straight-sets win over Etcheverry) underline his capacity to grind through rallies. Tiafoe has battled through longer three-set affairs in Houston (167 and 148 minutes), showing resilience but adding to fatigue. Over the last three matches, Paul is 3-0 while Tiafoe is 2-1, with the longer matches potentially blunting Tiafoe’s big-serve advantage.