Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Tristan Schoolkate vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

Tristan Schoolkate

Rank: #104
35%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #47
65%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Player Metrics

Tristan Schoolkate

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 495.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 60.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.9
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.2

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 63.7
ELO Rating: 1195.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1646.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Tristan Schoolkate

  • Last Match: vs Govind Nanda (2-0) hard Toronto 60 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (2-1) hard Los Cabos 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Benjamin Hassan (0-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Joao Fonseca

  • Last Match: vs Nicolas Jarry (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) grass Eastbourne 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-1) grass Eastbourne 128 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tristan Schoolkate
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Tristan Schoolkate and Joao Fonseca is set to take place in the Round of 128 at the Toronto Masters 1000 tournament, held on hard courts in Canada. Joao Fonseca is predicted to emerge victorious with a probability of 64.56%, while Tristan Schoolkate has a 35.44% chance of winning. The expected total number of games played in this match is approximately 23.

Match Analysis

Tristan Schoolkate, currently ranked 104, has a form index of 51.08 and an Elo rating of 495.93. His fatigue level stands at 60 minutes, indicating a moderate level of exertion from previous matches. Notably, his surface strength index of 4.90 suggests he may struggle on hard courts compared to his opponent. In contrast, Joao Fonseca is ranked 47 with a superior form index of 63.75 and an Elo rating of 1195.23. Fonseca's fatigue level is at 0 minutes, reflecting a fresh state heading into this match, and his surface strength index of 7.55 indicates he is more adept on hard courts. The difference in their mean serve index, where Schoolkate holds a slight edge at 97.00 compared to Fonseca's 94.37, is less than 5 points, keeping the serving aspect relatively balanced. However, their mean return indices are close as well, with Schoolkate at 86.22 and Fonseca at 86.13, suggesting both players are equally competent in returning serves. In their recent performances, Schoolkate has had mixed results, winning against Govind Nanda in Toronto and Daniel Altmaier in Los Cabos, but losing to Denis Shapovalov. His last match victory may boost his confidence. Fonseca's recent outings at Wimbledon were less favorable, having lost his last match against Nicolas Jarry after winning two prior matches against Brooksby and Fearnley. This inconsistency could impact his momentum, but his overall higher ranking and fresher condition give him an advantage.

Final Prediction

Joao Fonseca is favored to win due to his higher ranking, better form index, and lack of fatigue, making him more prepared for the challenge ahead. A key factor to watch will be how both players handle the pressure of serving, particularly since their serve indices are closely matched, which could influence the outcome significantly.