Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #33
42%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #15
58%
Expected Total Games: 26.2
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 44.9
ELO Rating: 1689.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1743.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.1
Clay: 14.8
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.1

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 48.2
ELO Rating: 1716.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 158.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.3
Clay: 27.8
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert

  • Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Hamburg 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Rome 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Rome 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) clay Madrid 136 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 64 min

Karen Khachanov

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) clay Hamburg 158 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (1-2) clay Rome 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) clay Rome 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Rome 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandr Shevchenko (2-0) clay Rome 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg, Germany, at the 500-level clay event, Ugo Humbert and Karen Khachanov meet in the round of 16 with contrasting profiles on a slow, high-bounce surface. The model favors Karen Khachanov to advance (58.44%) over Ugo Humbert (41.56%), with a projected total of about 26.17 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Khachanov arrives as the higher-ranked player (15) with a higher Elo (1716.70) and a marginally better form index (48.23) than Humbert (rank 33, Elo 1689.66, form 44.91). Khachanov’s surface strength index (27.83) is notably stronger than Humbert’s (14.79), suggesting Khachanov is more comfortable on clay, while both possess similar serving profiles—mean serve indices are close and do not indicate a clear serve advantage. Fatigue is a factor: Khachanov has logged 158 minutes in the event versus Humbert’s 141, with both coming off recent three-set matches in Hamburg. Recent results show a mixed pattern for both players. Humbert won in Hamburg over Justin Engel and also recorded an earlier win in Rome, but he had a straight-sets loss to Dino Prizmic in Rome; his match durations (75–141 minutes) point to resilience but intermittent form. Khachanov beat Hugo Gaston in a 158-minute match and has wins over Dino Prizmic, with a competitive loss to Casper Ruud in Rome; his recent results and slightly higher Elo reflect steadier outcomes at bigger moments this clay season.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.2 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Karen Khachanov) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Karen Khachanov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. Positive values indicate Ugo Humbert winning more games, negative values indicate Karen Khachanov winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 12.04 for the match while the predicted double faults total is 3.95. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed because slower, high-bouncing conditions give returners more time, while expected double faults can creep up as rallies and fatigue set in. Serve ratings between the two players are similar, so neither is expected to dramatically inflate the predicted aces figure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.0 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.0 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ugo Humbert versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Ugo Humbert's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s higher Elo, better clay profile and recent consistency give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be service hold efficiency under fatigue—breaks and short sets could decide a relatively compact match around the projected 26 games.

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