Adelaide Australia Hard Atp 250 Finals

Ugo Humbert vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #36
53%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #35
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current Rank: #36 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #23 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2025-01-13)

Tomas Machac

  • Current Rank: #35 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #22 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #25 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 85.3
ELO Rating: 1494.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 379
Surface Strength:
Hard: 46.0
Clay: 26.9
Grass: 29.4
Serve Rating: 51.0
Return Rating: 44.2

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 77.2
ELO Rating: 1454.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 346
Surface Strength:
Hard: 44.8
Clay: 29.8
Grass: 32.1
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) hard Adelaide 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-0) hard Adelaide 57 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Brisbane 155 min

Tomas Machac
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Adelaide 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Adelaide 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Brisbane 144 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the Adelaide tournament will see Ugo Humbert face off against Tomas Machac on a hard court in Australia. With the stakes high in this ATP 250 event, Humbert is slightly favored to win with a probability of 53.36%, while Machac sits at 46.64%. The expected total number of games played in this match is 23.91, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Ugo Humbert, currently ranked 36, boasts a form index of 85.31 and an Elo rating of 1494.15, suggesting he is in strong form heading into the final. He has accumulated 379 minutes of cumulative fatigue during the tournament, which could impact his performance. His surface strength index is 46.01, paired with a mean serve index of 51.03 and a mean return index of 44.19. In contrast, Tomas Machac, ranked 35, has a form index of 77.18 and an Elo rating of 1454.93. He has slightly lesser fatigue at 346 minutes and a surface strength index of 44.81. Notably, Machac has a significantly higher mean serve index of 96.35 and a mean return index of 92.17, giving him a clear edge in serving capabilities. In their recent performances, Humbert has shown resilience, winning his last three matches, including a tough encounter against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Machac has also been impressive, securing victories against solid opponents like Tommy Paul and Jaume Munar, demonstrating his competitive edge in this tournament. Both players will bring momentum into this final, but Humbert's higher form index indicates he may be riding a stronger wave of confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces in this match is 10.06, while the predicted double faults stand at 5.63. Given the hard court surface, which balances the play between powerful servers and strong returners, these predictions suggest a competitive serving game. Machac’s significantly higher mean serve index could lead to a higher number of aces, making him a formidable opponent in this regard.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ugo Humbert has a slight advantage heading into the final, bolstered by his recent form and competitive performance in the tournament. However, the key factor to watch will be Machac's serve; if he can effectively utilize his superior serving capabilities, he may tilt the match in his favor.

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