Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Valentin Royer vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Valentin Royer

Rank: #58
45%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
55%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Player Metrics

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 3.2
ELO Rating: 884.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1523.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 81.5
Return Rating: 65.8

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 55.0
ELO Rating: 1210.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Valentin Royer

  • Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (0-2) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Hong Kong 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Metz 126 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-2) hard Paris 118 min

Arthur Fils

  • Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Toronto 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nicolas Jarry (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Rome 105 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Royer
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Montpellier, France is on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event and projects as a clash between rising Arthur Fils and Valentin Royer. The model favors Arthur Fils to win (54.82%) over Valentin Royer (45.18%) with a predicted total of about 24.8 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets outcome with relatively short sets.

Match Analysis

Valentin Royer (rank 58) arrives with a low form_index (3.18) and an Elo of 884.4, zero reported fatigue, a surface strength index of 5.06, mean serve index ~81.5 and mean return index ~65.8. Arthur Fils (rank 42) shows a much stronger form_index (54.99), higher Elo (1210.0), no accumulated fatigue, a surface strength index of 12.17, mean serve index ~97.1 and mean return index ~94.5. The difference in mean serve index (~15.6 points) and in mean return index (~28.7 points) is notable and should materially affect serve hold and return opportunities—Fils is superior both on serve and return metrics on paper. Recent match form reinforces those numbers: Royer has lost his last three recorded matches (Australian Open to Taylor Fritz, Auckland to Francisco Comesana, Hong Kong to Tomas Martin Etcheverry), managing only one set in those outings and logging a long 174-minute match recently. Fils is in better recent form with two wins in his last three (including victories over Pablo Carreno Busta and Jaume Munar) and a competitive loss to Jiri Lehecka; his matches include both straight-set and longer five-set wins, indicating the ability to close out different match patterns.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 10.06 total and the predicted double faults total is roughly 5.63. On hard courts, which yield a medium-paced, consistent bounce, these predicted aces and expected double faults align with a balance between power and control. Given Fils’ significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces while Royer may account for a portion of the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Fils’ advantage in serve and return indices, higher Elo and markedly better recent form explain the edge in the prediction. The key factor to watch is Fils’ ability to convert aggressive serving into free points—if he does, the match should stay short and favor him.

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