Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Valentin Royer vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Valentin Royer

Rank: #76
51%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #42
49%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Valentin Royer

Ranking Trends

Valentin Royer

  • Current Rank: #76 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #108 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #115 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #209 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #179 (2024-10-14)

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #42 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #37 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #35 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #28 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 723.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 203.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 30.9
ELO Rating: 958.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Valentin Royer
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (0-2) hard Brussels 128 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-0) hard Brussels 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Shanghai 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-1) hard Shanghai 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) hard Shanghai 151 min

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lloyd Harris (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-1) hard Winston Salem 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Royer
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Brussels tournament, two rising talents, Valentin Royer and Sebastian Baez, will clash on hard court. The match promises to be closely contested, with a slight edge for Royer, who has a win probability of 51.49% compared to Baez's 48.51%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0, indicating a competitive match.

Match Analysis

Valentin Royer, currently ranked 76, comes into this match with a form index of 47.30 and an Elo rating of 723.85. Despite showing some fatigue with 203 minutes accumulated in the current tournament, his surface strength index of 5.62 indicates a reasonable ability on hard courts. Royer possesses a mean serve index of 97.06, which is notably stronger than Baez’s 95.02, giving him an advantage in service games. However, Baez has a more substantial mean return index of 89.86 compared to Royer's 88.16, showcasing his capability to break serve effectively. On the other hand, Sebastian Baez, ranked 42, exhibits a lower form index of 30.87 and a higher Elo rating of 958.27, reflecting his recent higher-level performances. He has reported no cumulative fatigue in this tournament, which may give him a physical edge going into this match. Reviewing their recent performances, Royer has had mixed results with only one win in his last three matches, while Baez has also struggled, securing one victory but dropping two matches. Both players will need to elevate their game significantly to advance.

Final Prediction

Valentin Royer holds a slight advantage due to his stronger serve and recent experience on the hard courts of Brussels, despite the fatigue he carries. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Baez can leverage his return game to counter Royer’s serve, as this may dictate the flow and outcome of the match.