Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #195
44%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
56%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Why the Model Favors Valentin Vacherot

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +5.1 Valentin Vacherot
Age +3.1 Holger Rune
Overall strength +3.0 Valentin Vacherot
Fatigue & recent workload +1.3 Valentin Vacherot
Surface fit +1.3 Valentin Vacherot

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Valentin Vacherot. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current #195 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #39 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #16 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-10-27

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #31 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1742.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 278.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.1
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 89.5

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 47.7
ELO Rating: 1790.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1775.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 269.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Holger Rune
vs
1
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valentin Vacherot is a slight favorite over Holger Rune, with the forecast giving him 56% to Rune’s 44%. The expected total is 24.3 games in the Basel Quarterfinals.

Match Analysis

Vacherot’s stronger overall standing is a central reason for the lean: he is ranked 31st, compared with Rune at 195th, and has the higher overall strength and hard-court profile. He has also won both of his matches in Basel, including a straight-sets win over Mariano Navone. Rune has his own recent momentum, having beaten Hubert Hurkacz in his last match, and he holds the stronger return profile. That could make it harder for Vacherot to turn his serving into easy points. Both players have put substantial time into the tournament, but their workloads are nearly level, so fatigue offers little separation.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Holger Rune - Valentin Vacherot) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Valentin Vacherot wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vacherot is projected for 9.1 aces and 2.6 double faults, while Rune is projected for 5.8 aces and 2.2 double faults. Their serve profiles are similar, but Rune’s stronger returning could help limit Vacherot’s ace count on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Holger Rune 5.8 + Valentin Vacherot 9.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Holger Rune 2.2 + Valentin Vacherot 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Holger Rune

Expected 5.8 aces

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 9.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Holger Rune

Expected 2.2 double faults

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Holger Rune's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rune’s returning is the main way to change the forecast. If he consistently puts Vacherot’s first serve back in play, the ranking and serve advantage may matter less.

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