Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Vilius Gaubas vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction

Vilius Gaubas

Rank: #154
52%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #69
48%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Vilius Gaubas

Player Metrics

Vilius Gaubas

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 318.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1517.2
Minutes Played in Current Tournament: 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 91.5

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 48.1
ELO Rating: 838.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Vilius Gaubas

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) clay Rome 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-0) clay Rome 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Maks Kasnikowski (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Diego Schwartzman (0-2) hard Us Open 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Richard Gasquet (2-0) hard Us Open 77 min

Damir Dzumhur

  • Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (0-2) clay Madrid 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) clay Madrid 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-1) clay Madrid 154 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Barcelona 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) clay Barcelona 129 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vilius Gaubas
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Vilius Gaubas faces off against Damir Dzumhur on the clay surface. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Gaubas predicted to win with a probability of 52.44%, while Dzumhur has a 47.56% chance. The anticipated total number of games played is around 21.

Match Analysis

Vilius Gaubas, currently ranked 154, has a form index of 50.24 and an Elo rating of 318.94, indicating he has been performing at a moderate level. His cumulative fatigue of 170 minutes reflects a considerable time spent on court during this tournament. His surface strength index of 3.03 suggests he is still developing his clay-court game. In contrast, Damir Dzumhur, ranked 69, possesses a higher form index of 48.12 and a significantly better Elo rating of 838.44, showcasing his overall experience and capability. Dzumhur's fatigue is notably zero, giving him a fresh advantage heading into this match. His surface strength index is also stronger at 7.51. The difference in their mean serve indexes is marginal at 1.59, but Gaubas has a slight edge in mean return index (91.46) compared to Dzumhur (89.91). In their recent performances, Gaubas has won his last two matches without dropping a set, demonstrating potential momentum. His victories against Hugo Dellien and Eliot Spizzirri on clay highlight his improving form. However, Dzumhur has a mixed record, having lost his last match to Matteo Arnaldi while securing a win against Sebastian Baez and Mattia Bellucci in previous rounds, both on clay. This inconsistency may hinder his performance.

Final Prediction

Vilius Gaubas is poised for victory, leveraging his recent success and slight edge in return capabilities against a fatigued opponent. A key factor to monitor will be Gaubas' ability to maintain his form and handle the pressure against Dzumhur, who, despite his recent struggles, has the experience and potential to challenge him on the clay.