Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #63
35%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
65%
Expected Total Games: 40.5
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #63 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #65 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #89 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #86 2025-05-26

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #32 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #40 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #73 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 37.7
ELO Rating: 1653.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 22.4
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 93.7

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 21.4
ELO Rating: 1604.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1645.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.0
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Corentin Moutet
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, round of 128 on clay, Corentin Moutet is the projected winner in this first-round meeting. The model gives Moutet a 64.58% chance to win versus 35.42% for Vit Kopriva, with an expected total of about 40.45 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Moutet comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 32) while Kopriva is listed at No. 63, yet Kopriva carries the higher Elo (1653.3 vs 1604.6). Both players report zero cumulative fatigue from the current tournament. Surface strength indices are low for both on clay (Kopriva 22.40, Moutet 17.49), suggesting neither is a clay specialist by the proprietary measure. Kopriva shows a slightly higher mean serve index (95.08) versus Moutet (94.50) — not a meaningful gap — but Kopriva’s mean return index (93.70) is markedly stronger than Moutet’s (87.42), a difference of over five points that favors Kopriva in returning play. Formally, Kopriva has one win in his last three outings: a straight-sets win over Fabian Marozsan in Rome, then back-to-back clay losses to Ugo Humbert and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Moutet’s recent sequence reads as three losses: straight-set defeats to Daniel Merida and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and a three-set loss to Pablo Llamas Ruiz; notably his Rome match ran 182 minutes, indicating heavy recent workload even though tournament fatigue is recorded as zero.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.5 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Corentin Moutet) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Corentin Moutet wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest, with predicted aces totalling 9.64; clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically suppress ace totals. The double faults prediction is 7.41, and the expected double faults reflect clay’s tendency toward longer rallies and potential late-match errors. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces figure is more a function of surface than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.6 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.4 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Vit Kopriva's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (34.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Moutet’s edge comes from his higher tournament ranking and the model’s overall assessment despite Kopriva’s stronger Elo and return numbers; those return strengths make this a live match for Kopriva. Key factor to watch: Kopriva’s return game — if it neutralizes Moutet’s serve, the match could be tighter than the probabilities suggest.

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