Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Vit Kopriva vs Hamad Medjedovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #70
35%
VS

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #81
65%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Hamad Medjedovic

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Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 51.4
ELO Rating: 1627.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.0
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 65.1
Return Rating: 78.9

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 47.5
ELO Rating: 1609.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1649.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.7
Clay: 40.6
Grass: 39.8
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Indian Wells 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Michael Zheng (2-0) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Indian Wells 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) hard Indian Wells 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (1-2) clay Santiago 90 min

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Rotterdam 139 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luka Pavlovic (1-2) hard Rotterdam 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Rotterdam 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Stan Wawrinka (0-2) hard Montpellier 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Hamad Medjedovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marrakech, Morocco — Round of 32 on clay at a 250-level event pits Vit Kopriva against Hamad Medjedovic in a matchup that favors the Serbian. The model projects Medjedovic to win (64.54%) against Kopriva (35.46%), with a predicted total of about 24.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kopriva arrives with a higher ranking (No. 70) and a slightly better form index (51.36) than Medjedovic (rank 81, form 47.52). Kopriva’s Elo (1627.21) narrowly edges Medjedovic’s (1609.86), and both carry zero tournament fatigue into Marrakech. Surface strength is similar and modest for both on clay (Kopriva 41.95, Medjedovic 40.59), suggesting neither is a clay specialist here. Where the match shapes up is on serve and return. Medjedovic’s mean serve index (98.44) dwarfs Kopriva’s (65.09) by more than 30 points, a major disparity that will influence service holds and free points. Medjedovic also posts a stronger mean return index (89.39) compared with Kopriva (78.87), a gap of roughly 10 points that favors him in baseline exchanges and breakpoint creation. Recent form over the last three matches shows both players with 1–2 records: Kopriva beat Michael Zheng but lost to Alexander Bublik and Dalibor Svrcina at hard-court events, while Medjedovic’s recent slate includes a win over Zizou Bergs and losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Luka Pavlovic, all on hard courts. Those results indicate little recent momentum for either, but Medjedovic’s serving and returning upside on paper gives him the edge on clay despite comparable surface indices.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Hamad Medjedovic) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Hamad Medjedovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. Positive values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games, negative values indicate Hamad Medjedovic winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for about 15.06 total aces in the match, while the expected double faults sit near 5.96. On slow, high-bouncing clay, predicted aces tend to be lower than on faster surfaces; nevertheless, Medjedovic’s substantially higher serve index makes him the likeliest source of most of those aces. The expected double faults reflect clay’s longer rallies and the fatigue that can accumulate, even though neither player enters this match with tournament minutes on court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.1 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Hamad Medjedovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Medjedovic’s superior serving and returning metrics give him a clear statistical advantage on paper, explaining the projected 64.5% probability of victory. The key factor to watch will be whether Kopriva can neutralize Medjedovic’s serve with early returns and breakpoint conversion; if he can, the match could extend beyond the projected 24 games.

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