Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #78
40%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #21
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 1595.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1646.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 66.1
Return Rating: 80.1

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 1662.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1761.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 127.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.6
Clay: 43.8
Grass: 42.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Munich 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 124 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Marrakech 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) clay Marrakech 145 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Indian Wells 125 min

Luciano Darderi

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Munich, Germany, the round-of-16 on clay at a 250-level event pits Vit Kopriva against Luciano Darderi. The model favors Darderi to advance (60.16% vs 39.84% for Kopriva), with a predicted total of roughly 23.4 games—suggesting a relatively concise, two-set encounter.

Match Analysis

On paper Darderi arrives with the higher standing: he is ranked 21 with an Elo of 1662.5, while Kopriva is 78 with an Elo near 1595. Kopriva posts a stronger short-term form index (48.29 to Darderi’s 33.14), but Darderi’s overall profile—better rank and Elo—gives him the baseline edge. Fatigue levels are comparable (Kopriva 130 minutes vs Darderi 127 minutes in the tournament), and both show modest clay strength indices (Kopriva 41.33, Darderi 43.81), so conditioning and surface comfort should not be a decisive gap. Serve and return metrics tilt heavily toward Darderi. His mean serve index (97.17) is far higher than Kopriva’s (66.13), a difference worth noting, and his mean return index (88.12) also exceeds Kopriva’s (80.09) by more than five points. Those differentials point to Darderi being the more dangerous server and returner on paper, despite Kopriva’s superior recent form. Looking at recent results, each has taken one victory among their last three matches at tour-level events: Kopriva edged Justin Engel in Munich after two prior clay losses, while Darderi beat Zhizhen Zhang in Munich after defeats to Hubert Hurkacz and Marco Trungelliti. Match lengths have been similar, underlining the comparable physical toll heading into this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Luciano Darderi) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Vit Kopriva wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. Positive values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games, negative values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 18.4 total, and the predicted double faults tally is about 4.89. On clay, expected aces are typically lower because the slower surface and higher bounce sap serve speed; the surface also makes the expected double faults relatively more likely later in long rallies or with accumulated fatigue. Given Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the likeliest source of the bulk of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking, superior Elo and pronounced serve advantage give him the edge in this matchup, even though Kopriva arrives in better recent form. The key factor to watch is Darderi’s serve — if he converts that advantage into free points, Kopriva’s strong return index may not be enough to upset the balance.

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