Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #56
61%
VS

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #83
39%
Expected Total Games: 41.2
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Why the Model Favors Yannick Hanfmann

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +7.9 Yannick Hanfmann
Surface fit +5.6 Yannick Hanfmann
Age +5.0 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Recent record by level +4.4 Yannick Hanfmann
Fatigue & recent workload +2.4 Yannick Hanfmann

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Yannick Hanfmann. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #56 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #104 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #150 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #135 2025-06-30

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current #83 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #57 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #58 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 35.1
ELO Rating: 1645.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 14.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 93.2

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 39.4
ELO Rating: 1568.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1620.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.2
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 80.6

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) grass London 170 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) grass London 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Johannus Monday (2-0) grass London 66 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) grass Stuttgart 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gauthier Onclin (2-0) grass Stuttgart 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon in London, Round of 128 on grass, Yannick Hanfmann is narrowly favored over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in what promises to be a serve-dominated early clash at the grand slam. The model projects Hanfmann to win with a 60.67% probability (Mpetshi Perricard 39.33%), and expects about 41.22 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Hanfmann comes mainly from recent form and surface fit, with additional credit for his recent results at comparable levels. Hanfmann enters with a higher ranking (No. 56 vs No. 83) and a superior Elo (1645.8 vs 1568.9), while both players show virtually no tournament fatigue. Hanfmann’s form index is 34.75 versus Mpetshi Perricard’s 39.11, but the model weights his grass results and level of opposition more heavily, boosting Hanfmann’s chance. Surface strength indices are similar and low for both (Hanfmann 14.32; Perricard 13.07), yet the model still gives Hanfmann a grass edge. Serve/return dynamics will be decisive on quick grass. Mean serve indices are nearly identical (Hanfmann 97.48; Mpetshi Perricard 97.82), so there’s no big serving advantage, but Hanfmann’s mean return index (93.19) is substantially higher than Perricard’s (80.56), a gap that helps explain the projected breaks and shorter set margins. Recent match form: Hanfmann is 1–2 in his last three on grass with a solid win in Mallorca and losses to higher-tier opponents including Zverev; Perricard is 2–1 with two straight wins followed by a long 170-minute loss in London.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.2 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This aces prediction expects 29.24 total aces and an expected double faults figure of 7.99 for the match. Grass amplifies serving numbers, so the predicted aces reflect the fast surface and both players’ big serves. Because neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces come from both players serving freely; the stronger return from Hanfmann may slightly depress Perricard’s ace conversion.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 29.2 Most likely: 29 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.0 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

64.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (23.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s projected edge is driven most by recent form on grass and his return effectiveness—those elements tilt a close matchup in his favor. Watch the return/first-serve interplay: if Hanfmann consistently neutralizes Perricard’s serve, the predicted outcome will likely follow.

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