Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Alcaraz comes mainly from overall strength and surface fit. That shows up clearly in the numbers. Alcaraz carries a much higher Elo at 2434 versus Wu’s 1657, and his rank is 3 compared with Wu at 113. Surface strength is another major driver: Alcaraz posts a 67.4 surface index on hard, while Wu is at 28.3. Those gaps account for a large share of the probability swing toward Alcaraz. Recent record by level also favors Alcaraz, adding further weight to the prediction. Compare form and playing tools. Alcaraz’s form index is 55.9 against Wu’s 48.0. Serve and return indices are close, with Alcaraz at 96.9 serve and 91.7 return, and Wu at 95.7 serve and 88.6 return. Fatigue is identical on cumulative minutes in the event, both listed at 348 minutes, so endurance from previous matches is not a separating factor. Over the last three matches Wu beat Adam Walton and James Duckworth in straight sets at this event after a loss at Winston Salem. Alcaraz has three wins including straight set victories and a 3-1 match here, showing consistent progress through the draw.