Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luca Nardi

Rank: #105
49%
VS

Yibing Wu

Rank: #179
51%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Yibing Wu

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Ranking Trends

Luca Nardi

  • Current #105 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #83 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #96 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #83 2025-01-13

Yibing Wu

  • Current #179 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #178 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #243 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #448 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #410 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Luca Nardi

Form Index: 10.4
ELO Rating: 587.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.0
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 69.2
Return Rating: 64.4

Yibing Wu

Form Index: 93.8
ELO Rating: 457.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 2.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Luca Nardi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Yibing Wu
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luca Nardi
vs
0
Yibing Wu
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Luca Nardi and Yibing Wu in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open promises to be an engaging contest on hard courts. With both players seeking to advance further in this Grand Slam event, the prediction slightly favors Yibing Wu, with a win probability of 51.41% compared to Nardi's 48.59%. The expected total number of games played in this match is approximately 37.82.

Match Analysis

Luca Nardi, currently ranked 105, has a form index of 10.44, indicating a struggle for consistency in recent performances. His Elo rating stands at 587.21, and he has shown no cumulative fatigue, which could be advantageous. His surface strength index of 5.04 demonstrates a moderate adaptation to hard courts, with a mean serve index of 69.18 and a mean return index of 64.36. On the other hand, Yibing Wu, ranked 179, comes in with a significantly higher form index of 93.78 and an Elo rating of 457.64. Despite having a cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes, Wu's surface strength index of 7.00, along with a mean serve index of 95.96 and a mean return index of 92.23, suggests he has the upper hand in serving and returning capabilities. Both players have had contrasting recent performances. Nardi has lost his last three matches, including a tough contest against Aleksandar Vukic where he won only one set. In contrast, Wu has shown dominating form at the Australian Open, winning all his recent matches in straight sets, which bodes well for his confidence heading into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luca Nardi - Yibing Wu) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Luca Nardi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 11.72 aces, with both players capable of delivering strong serves on the hard surface. The expected double faults prediction stands at 5.05, reflecting the competitive nature of the match. Given Wu’s significantly higher mean serve index, he may contribute a greater share of the predicted aces, which could ultimately play a crucial role in his overall performance.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.7 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Yibing Wu appears to have the edge over Luca Nardi due to his superior form, stronger serving ability, and recent success in the tournament. A key factor to monitor during the match will be Wu’s ability to maintain his serving consistency, particularly as he faces Nardi’s returning game.

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