Zachary Svajda vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Bellucci is driven primarily by recent form (+6.3 percentage points) and a small serve/return tilt (+0.7). Those model drivers sit against a set of modest advantages for Svajda — recent record by level (+2.0), overall record & opposition quality (+0.7), and surface fit (+0.6) — producing a close projection. On paper the two are finely matched: Bellucci is ranked 80 to Svajda’s 87, while Svajda carries the higher Elo (1670.9 vs 1573.7). Both players arrive fresh with zero minutes of tournament fatigue and strong serving profiles (mean serve indexes 94.23 for Svajda and 95.73 for Bellucci); the serve and return gaps are not large enough to be decisive. Stat lines underline the marginal nature of this matchup. Svajda’s form_index is 43.46 versus Bellucci’s 34.69, and Svajda also posts a stronger surface strength index (23.55 to 11.76) — factors that nudge the projection back toward him. Recent results are mixed: Svajda is 1–2 in his last three (including a win over Denis Shapovalov and losses to Arthur Fils and Aleksandar Vukic), while Bellucci has lost his last three matches (to Sebastian Baez, Ugo Humbert and Raphael Collignon), with two of those defeats coming on grass.