Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Taberner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #35
80%
VS

Carlos Taberner

Rank: #400
20%
Expected Total Games: 34.4
Predicted Winner: Zizou Bergs

Why the Model Favors Zizou Bergs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.8 Zizou Bergs
Overall strength +6.1 Zizou Bergs
Recent form +5.1 Zizou Bergs
Serve & return game +4.0 Zizou Bergs
Surface fit +3.5 Zizou Bergs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 80% for Zizou Bergs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 36.9
ELO Rating: 1669.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 10.7
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.9

Carlos Taberner

Form Index: 34.9
ELO Rating: 1512.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1387.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 20.1
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Zizou Bergs

  • Last Match: vs Daniel Merida (0-2) hard Cincinnati 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Washington 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Carlos Taberner

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zizou Bergs
vs
0
Carlos Taberner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, opening round on hard courts, Zizou Bergs is favored to advance over Carlos Taberner. The model projects Bergs to win with a 79.93% probability versus 20.07% for Taberner, and expects about 34.4 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Bergs is driven primarily by his recent record by level (+8.8 percentage points) and overall strength (+6.2). Recent form (+5.1), serve and return metrics (+4.0) and surface fit (+3.4) further push the prediction toward Bergs. Bergs sits well above Taberner in ranking at 35 versus 400, and carries a higher Elo at 1669.9 compared with 1512.3. Bergs posts a slightly stronger form index at 38.24 against Taberner’s 36.24. Neither player shows tournament fatigue entering this first round, both at 0 minutes on court. Surface strength favors Bergs by a comfortable margin, with a surface strength index of 20.58 for Bergs and 7.64 for Taberner. Serve and return indices are comparable. Bergs has a mean serve index of 96.08 and mean return of 87.92. Taberner shows a mean serve index of 94.22 and mean return of 86.83. Because those gaps are small, the model gains from Bergs come more from ranking, Elo and recent results than from a huge serving advantage. Form over the last three matches splits cleanly. Bergs has one win and two recent defeats, including a hard court win over Sebastian Baez followed by losses in Toronto and Cincinnati. Taberner arrives on a three match losing run, including straight set defeats at the Australian Open and other hard court events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 34.4 Most likely outcome: 32 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zizou Bergs - Carlos Taberner) +2.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Zizou Bergs wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. Positive values indicate Zizou Bergs winning more games, negative values indicate Carlos Taberner winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 13.25 total, with predicted aces of 8.45 for Bergs and 4.83 for Taberner. The double faults prediction is 10.32 total, with expected double faults of 5.21 for Bergs and 5.11 for Taberner. On medium paced hard courts, these predicted aces are moderate compared with grass and higher than typical clay outcomes.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Zizou Bergs 8.4 + Carlos Taberner 4.8
Expected Total Double Faults 10.3 Most likely: 9 double faults Per player: Zizou Bergs 5.2 + Carlos Taberner 5.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Zizou Bergs

Expected 8.4 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Zizou Bergs serves in this match.
Carlos Taberner

Expected 4.8 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Carlos Taberner serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Zizou Bergs versus Carlos Taberner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Zizou Bergs

Expected 5.2 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Zizou Bergs serves in this match.
Carlos Taberner

Expected 5.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Carlos Taberner serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zizou Bergs's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (46.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Zizou Bergs's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Bergs’ ranking, Elo and stronger recent record by level are the principal reasons he is projected to win. Watch whether his serve yields the expected ace advantage early, as that could settle the match quickly.

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