Winston Salem 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Aug 23 to Aug 31
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Aug 23 | Aug 24 | Aug 25 | Aug 26 | Aug 27 | Aug 28 | Aug 29 | Aug 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Buse | 1.6% | 2.1% | - | 4.2% | 8.7% | 19.1% | 42.2% | 100.0% |
| Arthur Fery | 7.7% | 8.5% | - | 16.2% | 23.5% | 41.8% | 57.8% | out |
| Felix Balshaw | - | 1.0% | 27.8% | out | - | - | - | - |
| Mees Rottgering | - | 0.4% | 25.0% | 3.1% | out | - | - | - |
| Quinn Vandecasteele | - | 0.8% | 24.4% | out | - | - | - | - |
| Abdullah Shelbayh | - | 0.4% | 22.8% | out | - | - | - | - |
| Benjamin Bonzi | 0.4% | 0.2% | - | 3.5% | 7.2% | 21.9% | out | - |
| Daniil Medvedev | 20.5% | 21.4% | - | out | - | - | - | - |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 4.2% | 4.7% | - | 8.7% | 20.0% | out | - | - |
| James Duckworth | 0.7% | 0.5% | - | 3.2% | 5.9% | 17.2% | out | - |
| Fabian Marozsan | 1.7% | 1.8% | - | 5.6% | 13.7% | out | - | - |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2.9% | 3.5% | - | 7.8% | 13.6% | out | - | - |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6.2% | 3.6% | - | 10.7% | out | - | - | - |
| Luciano Darderi | 5.0% | 5.4% | - | 9.2% | out | - | - | - |
| Quentin Halys | 7.8% | 8.2% | - | out | - | - | - | - |
| Tomas Machac | 6.9% | 7.0% | - | out | - | - | - | - |
How the race unfolded
Ignacio Buse won Winston Salem 2026. On Aug 23, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Daniil Medvedev at 20.5%. Ignacio Buse never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Felix Balshaw, from 27.8% to out of the tournament on Aug 26.
Last open forecast (Aug 29)
- Arthur Fery (4) 57.8%
- Ignacio Buse (3) 42.2%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/winston-salem-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)