Hong Kong Hong Kong, HKG Hard Wta 250 Quarterfinals

Antonia Ruzic vs Alina Charaeva Prediction

Antonia Ruzic

Rank: #84
47%
VS

Alina Charaeva

Rank: #100
53%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Alina Charaeva

Why the Model Favors Alina Charaeva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.7 Antonia Ruzic
Serve & return game +6.2 Alina Charaeva
Fatigue & recent workload +3.6 Alina Charaeva
Surface fit +3.2 Alina Charaeva
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Antonia Ruzic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Alina Charaeva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Antonia Ruzic

  • Current #84 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #55 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #59 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #67 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #70 2025-11-03

Alina Charaeva

  • Current #100 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #112 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #125 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #164 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #162 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Antonia Ruzic

Form Index: 22.0
ELO Rating: 1568.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.4
Clay: 20.4
Grass: 17.7
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 89.3

Alina Charaeva

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1742.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1716.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.2
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Antonia Ruzic
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Claire Liu (1-2) hard Guangzhou 171 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Katie Boulter (1-2) hard Osaka 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kayla Day (1-0) hard Osaka 52 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Paula Badosa (2-1) hard Osaka 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ann Li (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min

Alina Charaeva
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Antonia Ruzic
vs
0
Alina Charaeva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alina Charaeva is a narrow favorite, with a 53% win probability to Antonia Ruzic’s 47%, and 22.4 total games projected. The numbers point to a close Quarterfinals match in Hong Kong, rather than a clear advantage for either player.

Match Analysis

Ruzic’s stronger recent record at this level is the main counterweight to Charaeva’s forecast edge. It gives Ruzic a credible route to keep the contest tight, even as the model slightly favors Charaeva overall. Charaeva’s case rests on her serve-and-return profile and stronger hard-court fit. The serve numbers are closely matched, while Ruzic has the better return profile, so this is not a straightforward serving mismatch. Charaeva’s advantage is narrow, and both players have the tools to make the other work.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Antonia Ruzic - Alina Charaeva) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Ruzic is projected for 1.6 aces and 3.0 double faults, while Charaeva is projected for 2.6 aces and 4.9 double faults. Their serve profiles are closely matched, supporting modest ace totals, while Charaeva’s higher double-fault projection makes serving discipline important.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.1 Most likely: 2 aces Per player: Antonia Ruzic 1.6 + Alina Charaeva 2.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Antonia Ruzic 3.0 + Alina Charaeva 4.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Antonia Ruzic

Expected 1.6 aces

Alina Charaeva

Expected 2.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Antonia Ruzic

Expected 3.0 double faults

Alina Charaeva

Expected 4.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

25.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Antonia Ruzic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruzic’s stronger return is the matchup detail most capable of flipping the forecast, particularly if she can put pressure on Charaeva’s second serve.

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