Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 16

Sinja Kraus vs Nikola Bartunkova Prediction

Sinja Kraus

Rank: #95
24%
VS

Nikola Bartunkova

Rank: #34
76%
Expected Total Games: 21.9
Predicted Winner: Nikola Bartunkova

Why the Model Favors Nikola Bartunkova

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.4 Nikola Bartunkova
Recent form +4.2 Nikola Bartunkova
Recent record by level +4.2 Nikola Bartunkova
Surface fit +4.1 Nikola Bartunkova
Overall strength +3.6 Nikola Bartunkova

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Nikola Bartunkova. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Sinja Kraus

  • Current #95 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #118 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #110 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #133 2025-09-29

Nikola Bartunkova

  • Current #34 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #48 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #95 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #129 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #144 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Sinja Kraus

Form Index: 48.6
ELO Rating: 1657.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 258.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.9
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 9.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Nikola Bartunkova

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1837.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1815.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 167.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 46.8
Clay: 21.1
Grass: 22.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Sinja Kraus
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Nikola Bartunkova
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aryna Sabalenka (2-0) hard Beijing 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Magdalena Frech (2-0) hard Beijing 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mirra Andreeva (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tatjana Maria (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mayar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sinja Kraus
vs
0
Nikola Bartunkova
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bartunkova is a clear favourite, with the forecast giving her 76% to Kraus’s 24%. The expected match length is 21.9 games. In this Beijing Round of 16, her stronger overall standing and hard-court profile underpin that advantage.

Match Analysis

Bartunkova’s No. 34 ranking, against Kraus at 95, reflects a substantial gap in overall strength. She also has the stronger hard-court profile, while their serve numbers are nearly even, so the forecast is not built on a major serving mismatch. Bartunkova’s straight-sets wins over Magdalena Frech and Aryna Sabalenka support her case, though Kraus also comes off a straight-sets win over Dayana Yastremska. Kraus has spent 258 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with 167 for Bartunkova, a meaningful workload difference if the match goes long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.9 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sinja Kraus - Nikola Bartunkova) -3.4 Most likely spread: -4 (Nikola Bartunkova wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bartunkova is projected to hit 3.6 aces and 4.1 double faults, while Kraus is projected for 1.4 aces and 3.7 double faults. With similar serve profiles on hard court, the forecast gives Bartunkova a modest ace advantage rather than pointing to a major serving gap.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.1 Most likely: 3 aces Per player: Sinja Kraus 1.4 + Nikola Bartunkova 3.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Sinja Kraus 3.7 + Nikola Bartunkova 4.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Sinja Kraus

Expected 1.4 aces

Nikola Bartunkova

Expected 3.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Sinja Kraus

Expected 3.7 double faults

Nikola Bartunkova

Expected 4.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

20.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sinja Kraus's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (54.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kraus’s stronger return is the clearest counterweight to Bartunkova’s overall advantage. If she can make that difference count, she has a route to disrupting the favourite’s rhythm.

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