Bundesliga 2026-2027: Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Augsburg

Home Team
46%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
27%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 73%
Under 2.5: 27%
Goal: 77%
No Goal: 23%
Expected Corners: 11.2
Expected Shots: 31.5
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Augsburg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Augsburg
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.7 Augsburg
Attack +2.9 Union Berlin
Defense +2.0 Augsburg
Results & dominance +1.5 Union Berlin

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Augsburg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Augsburg defense +10.4 Over
Union Berlin defense +9.5 Over
Augsburg attack & chance creation +7.3 Over
Union Berlin attack & chance creation +5.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 73% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

Augsburg L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Elversberg (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 4 - 1)

Union Berlin D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elversberg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 7)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Augsburg

xG (avg) 2.78
xGA (avg) 2.77
Clean Sheets 0

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 0.36
xGA (avg) 3.76
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Augsburg are the likeliest winners at 46%, with Union Berlin on 27% and a draw on 26%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, at 73%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator: Augsburg have scored 2.3 goals per home game, while Union Berlin have scored none in their recent away games. Augsburg have also created chances at home, but their 2.8 expected goals conceded there points to openings for Union Berlin too. Augsburg’s latest outing was a 3-4 defeat away to Elversberg, and they have no clean sheets in their last five matches. Union Berlin drew 0-0 at home to Dortmund most recently, after a 0-7 away loss to Bayern Munich. Away from home, their average of 5.5 goals conceded is higher than their 3.8 expected goals conceded, suggesting opponents have punished them beyond the chances allowed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 73%. Both defences push the forecast toward a higher total, while Augsburg’s chance creation at home adds to the case for goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 11.2 corners. Augsburg’s recent 3-4 defeat at Elversberg included 16 corners across the match, with Augsburg winning 12.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 31 shots. The recent Augsburg-Elversberg match produced 48 combined attempts, supporting the prospect of plenty of shooting.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Augsburg wins by X goals. Negative = Union Berlin wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Augsburg vs Union Berlin with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Augsburg vs Union Berlin
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Augsburg’s favour. Their home advantage and stronger defensive profile give them the narrow edge, despite Union Berlin’s capacity to frustrate opponents.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s latest clean sheet against Dortmund shows they can defend with discipline. If they reproduce that performance away from home, they could blunt Augsburg’s home attack and overturn the forecast.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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