Elversberg
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 62 pts · 18W–8D–8L · GD +25
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Elversberg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Elversberg's results were 6.7% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Elversberg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 48.3% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1518 | 1617 | 1565 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1459 | 1627 | 1627 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1501 | 1580 | 1447 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Preußen Münster | W Elversberg 71.3% · draw 17.0% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Fortuna Dusseldorf | W Elversberg 44.2% · draw 28.2% | L ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Paderborn | W Elversberg 41.5% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Darmstadt | W Elversberg 40.2% · draw 29.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Karlsruhe | W Elversberg 69.2% · draw 18.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Schalke 04 | W Elversberg 39.1% · draw 31.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Hannover | L Elversberg 31.8% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Bielefeld | W Elversberg 52.2% · draw 26.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Greuther Furth | W Elversberg 52.5% · draw 24.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Magdeburg | W Elversberg 58.7% · draw 21.9% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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