Bundesliga 2026-2027: Mainz vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mainz

Home Team
52%
VS

Werder Bremen

Away Team
23%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Mainz

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Mainz
Defense +2.3 Mainz
Results & dominance +2.0 Mainz
Chance creation (xG data) +1.5 Mainz
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Mainz

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Mainz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Mainz attack & chance creation +4.8 Over
Werder Bremen defense +2.9 Over
Werder Bremen attack & chance creation +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Mainz defense +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

Mainz W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 5 - 0)

Werder Bremen D D W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Paderborn (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.99
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 2

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 2.21
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are the likeliest winners at 52%, with a draw at 25% and a Werder Bremen win at 23%. The forecast leans towards more than 2.5 goals, at 62%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator. Mainz have created chances at home, averaging 2.0 expected goals, while Werder Bremen have conceded 2.2 expected goals per away game. That defensive vulnerability gives Mainz a route to build on their stronger chance creation, although their home scoring average of 1.3 goals suggests they have not always made those chances count. Mainz’s latest result was a 1-0 win at Schalke, following a 3-4 home loss to Leverkusen. Werder Bremen have conceded in each of their last five matches, including their latest 2-2 draw with Paderborn and a 2-2 draw away at Dortmund. Mainz’s ability to turn chances into goals will matter against a side that has been difficult to shut out, but also has struggled to keep opponents from scoring.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
More than 2.5 goals is the likelier outcome at 62%. Mainz’s attack and chance creation, combined with Werder Bremen’s defensive record, point towards goals, while both sides have scored regularly in their recent results.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 9.8 corners. Recent match totals have varied, but Mainz’s three listed games produced five, seven and ten corners, while Werder Bremen’s ranged from four to twelve.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 28 shots. Recent games have included 39 shots in Mainz’s meeting with Leverkusen and 32 in Werder Bremen’s match away at Dortmund.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mainz wins by X goals. Negative = Werder Bremen wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mainz vs Werder Bremen with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mainz vs Werder Bremen
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Mainz are favoured by about 0.6 of a goal. That reflects their home advantage and the gap between their chance creation and Werder Bremen’s away defending, rather than a decisive difference between the teams.

Final Prediction

Werder Bremen’s recent goalscoring gives them a clear way to upset the forecast. If Mainz again fail to convert the chances they create, the visitors’ scoring and Mainz’s recent defensive concessions could make the home advantage count for less.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel