La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Girona Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Levante

Home Team
39%
VS

Girona

Away Team
34%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Levante W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)

Girona L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.14
# Clean Sheets: 1

Girona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.72
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Levante are narrowly favoured to take all three points, with a 39.0% chance of a home win compared to Girona’s 34.0% and a 27.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a tight Levante victory in a clash between 19th-placed Levante (21 points) and mid-table Girona in 14th (30 points). Despite both sides creating chances recently, the call is for under 2.5 goals, rated at 50.0%, with both teams still expected to get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Levante come into this with a mixed but improving run: a vital 2-0 home win over Alavés was bookended by narrow defeats to Villarreal (0-1) and a heavier loss at Barcelona (0-3). At home, though, they’ve looked more assertive, racking up 22 shots and 10 corners against Alavés and going toe-to-toe with Villarreal in both shots (16-15) and corners (3-2). Their recent five-game averages show 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, but the underlying numbers are brighter: 1.73 expected goals (xG) for and only 1.138 xG against, suggesting they are creating more than the raw scorelines show and tightening up defensively. Girona’s last three tell a story of volatility but also resilience: a famous 2-1 win over Barcelona, a 2-2 draw away to Alavés and a 1-2 home defeat to Celta. They’ve scored in all three, averaging 1.4 goals across their last five, while conceding 1.0. Their 1.72 xG for and 1.424 xG against over that span point to open games, with chances at both ends and no clean sheets in their last five. Girona are not solid at the back, but they do carry a regular goal threat, even when outshot badly as they were by Barcelona (27-13).

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an under 2.5 prediction despite a perfectly balanced 50.0% probability on the goal line, reflecting expectations of a tight, tense contest. Two of Levante’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-1 vs Villarreal, 0-3 at Barcelona), with only the 2-0 win over Alavés going close without crossing the line. For Girona, all three recent games have finished over 2.5, but their five-game averages of 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, alongside Levante’s 1.0 for and 1.0 against, plus fairly controlled xG figures on both sides, lean towards a narrow scoreline rather than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.98 total corners, essentially a 10-corner game. Levante’s last three have produced 16, 19 and 5 corners respectively, while Girona’s have seen totals of 16, 13 and 10, reflecting matches where both teams have been forced into plenty of defensive work and wide play. With Levante aggressive at home (10 corners won vs Alavés) and Girona used to absorbing pressure, a near double‑digit tally of predicted corners fits two sides that often attack through the flanks and rely on crosses.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.26, pointing to a reasonably lively game without being end‑to‑end chaos. Levante’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 39, 27 and 31, while Girona’s have totalled 22, 27 and a high‑tempo 40 against Barcelona. Those numbers, aligned with xG figures around 1.7 for both teams in recent matches, justify a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with enough efforts on goal to keep both keepers busy without guaranteeing a goal glut.

Final Prediction

Levante’s slight edge comes from home advantage and stronger recent underlying numbers, particularly their 1.73 xG per game against modest xG conceded. Girona’s ability to trouble big sides means this is far from straightforward, but their lack of clean sheets keeps the door open for the hosts. The key factor to watch will be which team controls territory and wing play; whoever turns those wide attacks into high‑quality chances is likely to tilt this finely balanced match.

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