La Liga 2026-2027: Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valencia

Home Team
27%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
49%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Villarreal

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Valencia
Chance creation (xG data) +11.1 Villarreal
Attack +5.8 Villarreal
Defense +3.1 Villarreal
Results & dominance +3.1 Villarreal

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Villarreal. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Villarreal attack & chance creation +6.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Valencia defense +1.6 Over
Valencia attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Form & results +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 9 9 0 0 39 9 30 27
2 Ath Madrid 9 7 1 1 19 8 11 22
3 Real Madrid 9 7 0 2 23 9 14 21
4 Betis 9 6 1 2 16 14 2 19
5 Sociedad 9 5 1 3 17 17 0 16
6 Sevilla 9 4 2 3 14 16 -2 14
7 Alaves 9 3 2 4 13 10 3 11
8 Celta 9 2 5 2 10 7 3 11
9 La Coruna 9 2 5 2 13 12 1 11
10 Osasuna 9 3 2 4 10 18 -8 11
11 Levante 9 2 4 3 15 17 -2 10
12 Villarreal 9 2 3 4 13 13 0 9
13 Betis 8 2 3 3 8 9 -1 9
14 Vallecano 8 2 3 3 12 17 -5 9
15 Getafe 9 2 3 4 5 11 -6 9
16 Espanol 9 2 2 5 11 12 -1 8
17 Santander 9 2 2 5 13 25 -12 8
18 Elche 9 1 4 4 11 17 -6 7
19 Valencia 9 1 3 5 6 15 -9 6
20 Malaga 9 0 4 5 6 18 -12 4

Recent Trends

Valencia D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Santander (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)

Villarreal D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Malaga (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 2

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.11
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are the most likely winners at 49%, with Valencia at 27% and a draw at 24%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 59%.

Match Analysis

Villarreal’s stronger chance creation is the clearest separator: away from home, they have averaged 2.1 expected goals, more than their 1.4 goals scored. Their attack and defensive record also compare more favourably, while Valencia’s home advantage is a counterweight rather than enough to make them favourites. Both teams were held scoreless in their latest match, Valencia drawing 0-0 with Ath Bilbao and Villarreal drawing 0-0 with Elche. Villarreal also failed to score in the match before that, a 0-1 defeat to Real Madrid, so converting their chances is a concern despite the promising away xG.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Villarreal’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push towards goals, with Valencia’s defensive record also contributing to that outlook. Valencia’s own attacking numbers pull the other way, so the forecast is not overwhelming.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.6 corners in total. Villarreal won 10 corners against Elche in their latest match, while Valencia had only two against Ath Bilbao, leaving room for the visitors to lift the overall count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 26 shots. Recent volume gives some basis for that figure: Valencia took 16 against Ath Bilbao and Villarreal had 20 against Elche, although those are individual team totals rather than match totals.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Villarreal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valencia vs Villarreal with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valencia vs Villarreal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Villarreal are favoured by about 0.6 goals. That fits the away side’s higher win probability, while Valencia’s home advantage helps keep the projected margin modest.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s home advantage could turn the forecast if they make more of their chances than they have recently. Villarreal’s away chance creation points towards them taking control, but their two most recent matches without a goal underline the risk of wasted opportunities.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel