Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Lyon Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Angers

Home Team
23%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
57%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Angers L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)

Lyon L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are clear favourites here, with a 57.0% chance of taking all three points away at Angers, who have just a 23.0% probability of a home win and sit 12th in Ligue 1, while Lyon are pushing for Europe in 4th. The game leans towards being tight rather than chaotic: the model points to an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for over 2.5, so a slight edge to the under) despite a 57.0% chance that both teams find the net. With Lyon only two points off Marseille in 3rd and Angers sitting in mid-table but not totally safe, there’s plenty riding on it.

Match Analysis

Angers come into this on an inconsistent run: a 1-0 win away at struggling Nantes was sandwiched between a 0-2 home defeat to Nice and a heavy 1-5 loss at Lens. Defensively, that Lens result exposes their fragility, and over the last five games they have conceded an average of 1.6 goals with an expected goals against figure even worse at 1.868. Going forward, they are not compensating at the other end either, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 0.938 expected goals – a sign of a side that struggles to create clear chances. Lyon, by contrast, look the more balanced outfit even if the results haven’t fully reflected it recently. They are three without a win – a 1-2 home loss to Monaco followed by a 0-0 at Le Havre and a 1-1 draw at home to Paris FC – but the underlying numbers are stronger: 1.8 goals scored on average in their last five, against 1.6 conceded, with xG of 1.538 for and 1.328 against. That suggests a team generally generating better chances than they concede. With a +12 goal difference across the season and a direct battle on with Marseille and Lille for a Champions League spot, this is the sort of match a side in 4th needs to control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 despite a fairly even 48.0% probability on the over 2.5 prediction, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Angers’ last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Nice, 1-0 vs Nantes), with only the 1-5 defeat at Lens going over. Lyon have been in even tighter contests: all of their last three – 1-2 vs Monaco, 0-0 at Le Havre, 1-1 vs Paris FC – stayed under 2.5. With Angers’ attack stuck below one goal per game on average and Lyon’s xG sitting around 1.5 for and 1.3 against, a controlled, relatively low-scoring encounter looks more likely than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with an expected 9.23 corners in the match. Recent numbers suggest a similar pattern: Angers’ games produced 10, 13 and 7 corners respectively (an average of 10), while Lyon’s last three saw 8, 4 and 10 corners (an average of 7.3). Angers tend to rack up corners even when chasing games – 7 against Nice, 4 away at Nantes – while Lyon’s more measured, possession-based approach still brought 8 corners in the 1-1 draw with Paris FC. Put together, a total around nine or ten looks in line with their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction expects 25.14 total attempts, which fits with what both sides have produced lately. Angers’ last three matches featured 16, 11 and 11 shots for them and 26, 12 and 13 against – games with plenty of efforts but not always quality. Lyon’s recent outings show something similar: they attempted 15, 13 and 14 shots, while allowing 21, 12 and 14, figures that mirror their xG edge without turning into wild attacking displays. The expected shots tally supports the idea of Lyon creating the better chances but not in overwhelming volume.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s superior league position, stronger recent attacking output and more favourable xG profile give them a clear edge over an Angers side that struggles to both create and contain. If Lyon can impose their rhythm and convert the chances their numbers suggest they’ll generate, they should justify their 57.0% win probability. The key factor to watch will be whether Angers’ fragile defence can hold out long enough to frustrate Lyon – if the visitors score first, this could quickly tilt decisively their way.

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